Commodity currencies are generally lower as the markets started a holiday shortened week. WTI is extending the pull back from last week's high of 41.42 and is back below 39 handle, dragging down Loonie, Aussie and Kiwi. Meanwhile, Yen and Euro are generally higher, followed by dollar. Japan is on bank holiday today and other Asian indices are mixed. China SSE (LON:SSE) composite is extending recent winner streak and is up 0.9% at the time of writing while Singapore Straits Times index is down -1.2%. Release today so far, UK Rightmove house price index rose 1.3% mom in March. New Zealand Westpac consumer sentiment dropped to 109.6 in Q1. Eurozone current accounts, UK CBI trends total orders and US existing home sales are the main feature today.
Looking ahead, there are some important economic data to be watched even though the impact on the markets could be muted after all the central bank activities this month. In particular, Eurozone will release PMIs and German Ifo and ZEW on Tuesday. UK will release CPI on Tuesday and retail sales on Thursday. US will release durable goods on Thursday and Q4 GDP final on Friday. Japan will release CPI on Friday too. Here are some highlights for the week ahead:
- Tuesday: Australia house price index; Japan PMI manufacturing; Swiss trade balance; Eurozone PMIs, German Ifo and ZEW; UK CPI and PPI; US house price index
- Wednesday: Swiss ZEW; SNB quarterly bulletin; US new home sales
- Thursday: New Zealand trade balance; German Gfk consumer sentiment; UK retail sales; US durable goods, unemployment claims
- Friday: Japan CPI; US Q4 CPI final.
Latest CFTC data showed mixed change in sentiments on March 15 comparing to the prior week. A point to note that in spite of Euro's rise, net shorts has indeed increased. Net positions in Canadian dollar stayed short in spite of its rally with crude oil. Australian dollar is moving back towards a neutral position after staying long for the fifth week. Here are some details:
- Euro net shorts rose slightly to -77.6k from -1.9k
- Sterling net shorts dropped sharply to -13.2k, from two year low of -49.0k.
- Yen net position dropped slightly to 45.5k, down from 64.3k.
- Canadian dollar net shorts dropped for the seventh week to -16.8k, from -25.8k.
- Australian dollar net positions stayed long for the fifth week but dropped to 12.8k, down from 29.2k.