We present Commodity Trends 2014, which includes five themes to drive the markets this year:
Theme 1: geopolitical risks abating
Geopolitical risks are abating as momentum is growing in the negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme. The geopolitical premium could decline further in 2014.
Theme 2: oil glut could be in the offing
The North American oil boom continues to be the centre of surging global oil production and the world risks facing an oil glut this year.
Theme 3: recovery in investment good news for base metals
There is still potential left for 2014 in US housing construction and businesses in Europe get ready to invest again. This is good news for demand for base metals.
Theme 4: mounting grain supplies
Corn supplies are on track for the largest increase since 1994 as global grain supplies are mounting and outpacing demand growth. The grains market balance is set to shift up.
Theme 5: backwardation returns
Backwardation could become more entrenched in commodity markets in general in 2014.
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