Black Friday Sale! Save huge on InvestingProGet up to 60% off

Commodities Wrap: Slow and Steady Wins the Investing Race

Published 01/19/2012, 04:46 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
GC
-
HG
-
SI
-
NG
-
LHc1
-
LCc1
-
NYF
-

Every investor has a different strategy but slow and steady sometimes wins the race. The idea is to be consistent and take small losses and let profits run, thought that's easier said than done. For three weeks now Crude has been stuck in a $5 trading range and this looks to continue.

Yesterday prices reversed mid-day to close slightly higher back above the 9 day MA above $101/ barrel in March. The sidelines is my suggestion until we get a  clearer picture. A close below $98.50 or above $102.50 would likely set the tone in that direction but until then sit on your hands.

We’re getting mixed signals from the distillates which is supporting sideways action in Crude with RBOB inching higher gaining over 2% yesterday while heating oil closed lower for the fifth straight session. No new lows yesterday but still waiting for a bottom in natural gas and believe it or not I am hearing whispers of $1.00 handle. Stay tuned.

Equities bounced off the 9 day MA yesterday and closed higher by approximately 1% depending on the exchange. Ytd stocks are off to a healthy start appreciating just over 2%. Expect the grind higher to continue, using the 9 day MA as your pivot point on a closing basis.

Gold and silver closed above their respective 40 day MA’s. My next target remains the 50 day MA which in February gold comes in at $1678 and in March silver at $31.16. On the daily chart prices are overbought so if we start to turn south have an exit strategy to book profits on longs because, as we all know, metals can change course quickly.

Copper is nearing a three month high and if prices surge above $3.80 the next stop would likely be $4/lb., a level not seen in nearly five months. Stay tuned.

Day three of a dollar setback and the first settlement below the 20 day MA in two weeks. An interim top may be in so stay tuned … a close below 80.45 in March I would turn bearish.

The standouts yesterday were the European currencies. Expect that to continue on further dollar weakness. The Euro, Pound and Swissie can be bought with tight stops. Cocoa needs to re-take the 50 day MA in the next few sessions or I would take remaining longs off.

That level is 2295 in the March contract. Treasuries were lower yesterday but until we see consecutive closes under the 20 day MA in both 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes consider it just a trading range and I have no long or short interest. Those levels are 143’22 in 30-yr bonds and 130’25 in 10-yr notes.

Fresh lows in corn and wheat as we may make an attempt at the December lows while soybeans were able to tread water yesterday. On a lower trade that holds the December support I will look to be a buyer of Ag for clients. Stay tuned.

Not my favorite trade, but if long live cattle, place stops just below the 20 day MA and let the market guide you. Lean hogs have picked up ground the last four sessions. As I’ve voiced I think this is the beginning of the next leg higher. Lean hogs are not making headlines but we could see a nice appreciation in the weeks to come…this fits the bill for a good swing trade.

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.