TRADE ALERTS:
Buy April cattle
.
Buy 131.30 stop. Protective stop 130.47. Potential projection 133.00. (Potential risk $332. Potential profit $680). Margin $1620.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. Both the monthly and the weekly are in up trends.
2. On both the monthly and weekly charts the current waves up have not yet met projections.
3. The weekly has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
4. On the daily chart cattle rallied and closed over resistance going back to October on Friday. That is positive.
5. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Buy March swiss franc.
Buy 110.25 stop. Protective stop 109.05. Potential projection 113.85. (Potential risk $1500. Potential reward $4500). Margin $7290.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart formed a key reversal bottom last month.
2. Both the monthly and the weekly charts are back over the 20 day ma.
3. On the daily chart, the swiss held the 108.00 support last week.
4. On the daily chart, the swiss rallied over the 20 day ma on Friday. Today it rallied over the 100 day ma.
5. On the daily chart the recent sell-off in the swiss that bottomed last Thursday could be the correction to a first wave up since the January low.
Buy March dollar.
Buy 79.41 stop. Protective stop 78.87. Potential projection 80.800. (Potential risk $540. Potential reward $1390). Margin $2394.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a buy.
2. On the weekly chart it persists in closing above the 20,100 & 150 each week even though it violates them during the week. Currently they intersect at the same level and the dollar is holding at that level this week.
3. The weekly chart has been in an uptrend since the May low. It has had three waves up. It could be starting a fourth wave.
5. On the daily chart the dollar is holding in previous support.
6. A buy signal would push the dollar back over the 20 & 100 day ma on the daily.
7. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
GRAIN COMMENTS: Switching to May contracts.
MAY CORN: After succeeding in closing over the 20 & 100 day ma on Friday on the daily chart, it failed them today and then some. Since late January corn can neither get over 650 or under 625. Its low today 628 3/4. The longer term charts are not showing much either. On both the monthly and weekly charts corn is at the 20 day ma. Whether that will hold or not remains to be seen. On the weekly corn has been stuck in a tight range for five weeks. The last time it did this for the exact same time frame was in October. That time it broke out to the downside and sold off to 601 1/2. Ultimately I suspect that is where it is headed one way or the other. Closed 644 1/2, down 11 3/4.
MAY WHEAT: It continues to be stuck between the 100 & 150 day ma on the weekly chart. Nothing new there. On the daily chart wheat sold off today and made a new low for the current sell-off. It also formed a huge outside day. Just watching. Closed 636 3/4, down 11.
MAY SOYBEANS: They are the only one in the grain complex that has been in an uptrend. They closed over 1275 today. They did in mid October too but it did not last and they then had the sell-off that put them down to 1125. But this time they're over the 150 day ma too. That may help. Longer term they still strongly suggest 1300. Closed 1277, up 3 1/4.
MAY MEAL: It reached long term resistance today and reacted accordingly. On the daily chart, it is in the process of a second major wave up. This wave has had three little waves within the major one. This third one has reached its projection and we may see a sell-off. If it does it could reach around 325.00 to 322.00. The projection of the overall wave has yet to be met up at 345.00. Closed 332.70, down 2.40.
MAY BEAN OIL: Like the beans, bean oil just keeps moving along with its rally. Nothing new here. The potential projection is 55.55. Closed 54.45, up .65.
MEAT COMMENTS:
APR HOGS: I tried to buy them again today but they sold off instead. Possibly they need to do more work at this level. Watching closely to buy. Closed 89.82, down .55.
APR CATTLE: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 131.15, up .25.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
MAY COTTON: On Friday I exited at 93.30 late in the session as cotton was struggling too much all day. The buy is having just too much trouble following through. It is now struggling to hold 92.85. Just watching for now. Closed 92.97, up .32.
Position: Long 93.15 (2.15). Exit 93.30 (2.17). Profit $20 (-comm/fees).
MAY ORANGE JUICE: It triggered a buy on Friday from an inside day. It was negated today. As stated before, the charts suggest a major top has been made but the daily is not giving any clear direction currently. There could be more to the recent attempt at a rally and there may not. Just watching. Closed 180.45, down .60.
MAY COFFEE: Near term coffee is attempting to hold at the 200.00 long term support. Normally when a market reaches a previous support (or resistance) for the first time it reacts positively. That is what coffee is doing. How far can it rally? Possibly to 210.00 to 212.00 area. It will reach heavier resistance around 217.00 - and on the weekly that is where the 100 day ma intersects. A very narrow inside day on Friday triggered a buy today. It rallied to 206.75. The current wave down on the daily chart has exceeded projections so that helps. Long term it is attempting to hold in support going back to Oct. 2008. Bottom line, coffee has not given any indication that the downtrend is over with. This is only an attempted rally in a bear market. Closed 206.05, up 3.70.
MAY COCOA: It rallied over the 20 day ma on the daily chart last week. It continued to test it on Thursday and Friday. Friday it rallied again and closed over the 100 day ma. This is the first time since it failed that average last September. That is significant but it does need to follow through. I suspect it will as the current wave up on the daily has not yet met projections (26.45). Watching closely to buy. Closed 24.24, up .99.
MAY SUGAR:A narrow inside day on Friday triggered a buy today. It rallied and closed over the 100 day ma. That is the first time since it failed that average in October. It also reached the high of the previous wave up (24.50). It needs to take that out. Move stops up from 23.15 to 23.60. Closed 24.47, up .70.
Position: Long 23.75 (2.16).
Projection: 24.85.
METALS COMMENTS:
MAR COPPER: An outside day formed last Friday on the daily chart triggered a buy today. However, that buy occurs just about where the 20 day ma intersects and that stopped the buy from following through - so far. After closing under the 100 day ma on the weekly last week, it is right back over it today. It's still early in the week but such positive action could help copper rally further to the 395.00 area. Closed 383.65, up 12.85.
APR MINI GOLD: Today's action alone triggered a preliminary buy on the monthly chart. That is positive. If it can take out 1765.90, it will be negating a key reversal top on the weekly that was formed at the top of the last major rally the week of January 30. If that resistance is removed, gold will most likely test 1800.00. Closed 1758.50, up 32.60.
MAR MINI SILVER: I was stopped out at 33.600 on Friday. It rallied to 33.690. Today's action does not compare to gold's. It was stopped by the 150 day ma. But it is back over the 20 day ma and at the high end of its range. Gold surpassed its 150 day ma in late January. Silver has yet to accomplish that feat. If it does, however, it could be a good buy. Watching closely. Closed 3442.90, up 1.213.
Position: Short 33.595 (2.10). Exit 33.600 (2.17). Loss $60 (+comm/fees).
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
APR MINI CRUDE OIL: It violated its uptrend formed since the January 2009 low last August. It has made several attempts to regain that trend and is close to accomplishing it. If that be the case, the huge correction that bottomed in October could be the correction to a second major wave up since that 2009 low. That means, crude could regain its trend and test the high made in May at 114.83. If it fails to take that out, that would be very negative. What I'm getting at is that crude is working into a critical area. If it can take that out, the next projection in crude is up at 128.50. If it can't take it out, we could be looking at 60.00 down the road. Fundamentally, the only thing holding crude up right now is the Iran issue. There is a glut of crude everywhere and that supports lower crude at some point. On the daily chart, the current wave up has met projections. Coin tossing time! Closed 106.25, up 2.65.
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN: The free fall continues. Another new low today at 125.19. Long term it appears as though it hasn't even begun. On the monthly its major uptrend is still intact. That's from the 2007 low. It finally reached some support today near the 125.00 level. Based on that the market will probably form a rally. That could be a rally to short. Closed 125.50, down 39.
MAR SWISS FRANC: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 109.70, up .80.
MAR DOLLAR INDEX: Today was an outside day. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 79.136, down .320.
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY: Today it negated a sell it had triggered over a week ago. It is close to challenging the high of 133.25 made on Feb. 9. If it does, it most likely will try for 134.00. Just watching. Closed 132.47, up .88.
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR: It sold off today after making a new high at 100.90. Long term it sure suggests that the rally is not over with at all. The monthly is back over the 20 day ma and last week's low on the weekly held at the 100 day ma. On the daily it continues to hold at the 20 day ma during sell-offs. This whole move still suggests a potential to 102.00. Closed 100.31, down 3.
MAR AUSSIE: It looks primed for a major sell-off. Even though it is at the low end of its range on the daily chart at 106.00, it is now under the 20 day ma for the first time since December. The last rally could not reach the high of the move (107.95) and now appears to be forming a 1,2,3 top formation. It also formed a huge outside day today. Closed 106.38, down 45.
MAR EMINI: It just refuses to sell off. It is way over bought but continues to make new highs. Just watching. Closed 1360.00, up .25.
DEC 10 YEAR NOTES: This most recent sell-off is holding at the 130.150 long term support. The daily continues to be in an overall uptrend and it is probably close to being in a buying area again. Just watching. Closed 130.205, down .090.