Commodities Trade Alerts : December 14, 2011

  Sell 48.68 stop.  Protective stop 50.30.  Potential 46.50.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly chart has a sell signal.
2.  On the monthly, bean oil sold off under the 20 day ma last month.  It continues to trade under it this month.
3.  On the weekly chart, the current wave down has not met potential projections.
4.  On the weekly chart, an attempt to rally back over the 50.00 resistance has failed to date.
5.  The daily chart has a previous sell signal.
6.  On the daily chart the current wave down has not yet met projections.

Sell February cattle.  Sell 118.27 stop.  Protective stop 119.45.  Potential projection 112.50.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly chart is triggering  a sell this month.
2.  The weekly has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
3.  On the weekly chart, cattle violated the 20 day ma this week.
4.  The macd is negative on both long term charts.
5.  On the daily chart, cattle violated long term support on Monday.
6.  On the daily chart, cattle violated the long term uptrend formed since the 2010 low some time ago.
7.  The daily chart has a previous sell that is still intact.

Sell March sugar. Sell 22.97 stop. Protective stop 23.62. Potential projection 20.20.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, sugar triggered a sell last month.
2. On the monthly chart, sugar closed under the 20 day ma last month. That is negative.
3. On both the monthly and weekly charts, sugar violated the uptrend formed since the May 2010 low last month. It continues to trade under that trend line this month. That is negative.
4. The monthly chart appears to be forming a 1,2,3 top formation.
5. On the weekly chart sugar sold off under the 100 day ma several weeks ago. That is negative.
6. On the daily chart sugar attempted to rally over the 20 day ma several times last week and failed.
7. On the daily chart attempts to rally back over the 24.25 resistance continue to fail.
8. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

Sell March mini yen.  Sell 128.310 stop.  Protective stop 129.120.  Potential projection 126.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly chart formed a major key reversal top in October - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2.  On the monthly chart, the yen continues to fail to get back over the 130.000 resistance.
3.  The weekly chart has a major key reversal top.
4.  On the weekly chart, the yen failed the 20 day ma several weeks ago.  Attempts to get back over it continue to fail.
5.  The macd is negative on all three charts.
6.  On the daily chart, the yen has failed both the 20 and 100 day ma.
7.  The daily chart has a previous sell signal.

GRAIN COMMENTS:  

MAR CORN:  Last time it was holding the 20 day ma on the monthly chart.  Since then it has violated it but on a daily closing basis is trying to hold. It keeps trying to get back over 600 support but can't so far.  Since on the daily chart it has already taken out the low of the last major sell-off that bottomed in early October, it is technically confirming another wave down.  That wave down on the daily chart hasn't even begun to meet projections.  The first major sell-off totaled 2.03 points.  This one so far has totaled .96 points.  If it even nears the potential projection on the daily chart that would be around 475 approximately.  Considering the bearish grain report and what is going on economically, it could do just that.  And if the current wave down on the weekly follows through, it has projections to 450.  Closed 594 1/2, up 1/2.

MAR MINI WHEAT:  I tried to short it today.  It rallied instead and is trying to hold over 600 on the daily chart.  It needs follow through.  The concern is the damage done on the weekly chart.  It closed under the 150 ma again last week.  That is negative and normally in a market further confirms a trend change from up to down. It had attempted to get back over that average two weeks in a row.  This week is key.  Closed 600 1/2, up 6 1/4.

JAN MINI BEANS:  They rallied today as they attempt to hold 1100 support.  The weekly triggered a sell this week.  They are still trading under the 150 day ma on the weekly chart too.  Their 20 day ma on the daily chart intersects at 1137 approximately.  That could be a sell area.  Just watching.  Closed 1118 1/2, up 6 1/2.

JAN MEAL:  In my last report I suggested that it could rally as it was on some good long term support.  Also, it looks oversold on the weekly chart.  It started to rally yesterday and does have the potential to 300.00.  At that level it will be pushing into resistance.  Closed 283.40, up 3.90.
 
JAN BEAN OIL:  I attempted to short it in my last Update but the price was not reached.  I'll try again tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 49.25, down .07.

MEAT COMMENTS:
 
FEB HOGS:  There are some mixed technical signals regarding hogs but the positives currently out weigh the negatives.  The concern is the upside potential.  Just watching.  Closed 86.40, down .20.
 
FEB CATTLE:  The technicals have become very negative and the sell-off could be just beginning.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 118.65, unchanged.
 
SOFTS:
 
MAR COTTON:  In my last Update I suggested the next long term support to be around 82.00 to 83.00.  It was fighting to hold above 90.00 but I doubted that it would hold.  It didn't and is now in the low 87.00 area.  As it looks now the long term projection could go as low as 80.00.  The 90.00 level is now major resistance.  Closed 87.31, up .15.
 
JAN ORANGE JUICE:  Last time it was having real trouble at 180.00.  It finally gave in and sold off.  It failed both the 20 and 100 day ma on the daily chart.  It did fail the 150 but is trying to hold there.  It does have support around 165.00 and that is helping since the 150 day ma intersects in that area too.  Long term the negative picture has increased.  The monthly triggered a sell this month.  On the weekly chart it is now under the 20 day ma.  Normally that is the first red flag with the 100 and 150 day ma (they are lowered on the weekly charts) the next targets.  Also the weekly is forming a potential 1,2,3 top formation.  If this sell-off follows through OJ has a projection down to 136.00.  Closed 168.35, up 2.10.
 
MAR COFFEE:  I have been referring to the descending triangle on the daily chart.  Normally the breakout is to the downside.  That it finally did yesterday.  Today's rally tested that breakout but has held so far.  Long term the negatives increase.  On the monthly it has violated the 20 day ma for the first time since 2009.  That is not a good sign.  The monthly also has a sell signal.  The weekly chart triggered a sell this week but is holding in previous support going back to October 2011.  I do not expect it to hold.  Some time ago I had projections to 200.00 and I still see that.  The charts have not done anything to change that potential - whether it tries to rally from this level or not.  Closed 222.95, up 1.90.

MAR COCOA:  I covered the short on Friday (Dec. 2) with a profit when it reached my projection at 22.00.  Yesterday it sold off to 19.83 but you never know that ahead of time.  It then formed a major key reversal bottom with follow through today.  This has changed the long term situation.  It held at the 20.00 long term support and if it holds this key reversal bottom, it will also be holding the 100 day ma on the monthly.  This could be setting up a near term bottom at least.  Watching closely to buy.  Closed 22.43, up .62.
Position:  Short 23.71 (11.28).  Exit 22.32 (12.2).  Profit $1335 (-comm/fees).

MAR SUGAR:  I tried to short it today.  The price was not reached.  This is the fourth day that it has formed an inside day back to back.  When markets do that they are setting up for a strong move.  Based on the technicals, I'll try to short again tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 23.44, up .15.
METALS COMMENTS:

MAR COPPER:  Last time it was struggling at the 360.00 resistance but if the near term uptrend could follow through, it had potential to 390.00.  It has not done that.  It has sold off instead and put into question the near term uptrend that it has formed since the early October low on the daily chart.  Today it closed under the 20 day ma on the daily chart and has a sell signal.  The weekly chart has triggered a sell this week.  All the macd's are negative.  Long term the charts suggest a target of 300.00 copper.  Closed 344.15, down 2.25.
 
FEB MINI GOLD:  Today is the first time that gold closed under the 150 day ma on the daily chart.  It traded under it during the last major sell-off in late September but rebounded immediately and never closed under it.  Has anything changed on the long term charts?  Closing under 1600.00 on the monthly would be negative as it is major support.  As pointed out before, the monthly formed a major key reversal top in September.  That is the first red flag that a market is changing trend and so far that seems to be following through.  The weekly is more negative. The weekly triggered a sell this week.  That is the first time since May of this year.  The weekly appears to be forming a 1,2,3 top formation.  If this wave down follows through, gold has a potential target of 1400.00.  Watching closely to short.  Closed 1663.10, down 5.10.
 
MAR MINI SILVER:  It has been in a range but violated that range today.  The low end was 31.000 approximately.  Today's low 30.455.  It did recover by the close and closed above 31.000.  I think the real key to this market is 30.000.  Failing that should bring the market to 20.000.  Long term the negative situation has increased.  Both the monthly and weekly charts are triggering a sell.  And the macd is negative on both charts.  Closed 31.260, up .258.
 
ENERGY, CURRENCIES, FINANCIALS:
 
JAN MINI CRUDE OIL:  I tried to short it today.  It never reached my price.  It rallied instead and closed back over the 20 day ma on the daily chart.  Watching closely to short again.  Closed 100.14, up 2.37.
 
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN:  Let's finish up with the December trade first.  In my last Update I attempted to short it.  The price was reached that Friday (Dec. 2).  Stops were reached last Thursday when the market "spiked" up.  I will try again tomorrow to short it.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 128.52, down .15.
Position:  Short 128.390 (12.2).  Exit 129.150 (12.8).  Loss $530 (-comm/fees).
Projection 126.000.
 
MAR SWISS FRANC:  Switching to March.  The consolidation that is was attempting failed to form a bottom.  The issue with the 110.00 resistance proved to be too much on the daily chart.  Instead it sold off and the damage mounts on the long term charts.  It is now under the 20 day ma on the monthly for the first time since May 2010.  The weekly triggered a sell this week.  It will reach its first decent support at 105.00.  That could form a rally.  It will be one to short.  Closed 105.99, down .97.
 
MAR DOLLAR INDEX:  Switching to March.  Its strength lately has dramatically changed the long term charts.  The monthly chart is triggering a buy this month.  It is also back over the 20 day ma and attempting to get over the 80.000 resistance.  The weekly triggered a buy this week and just the opposite of the markets that have turned bearish, it has turned bullish because it is now over both the 100 and 150 day ma.  This run up should bring the dollar to 82.000.  Watching closely to buy.  Closed 80.949, up .726.
 
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY:  The December contract triggered a sell on Dec. 2.  I covered today and rolled over into the March.  Keep stops at 132.550.
Position:  Short 134.090 (12.2).  Exit 130.400 (12.13).  Profit $2251.25 (-comm/fees).
Position:  Short 130.940 (12.13).
Projection:  120.000.
 
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR:  Switching to March.  In my last report I thought it was starting a new wave up with projections to 100.00.  Not so. It triggered a sell and today is at 96.43.  Long term it seems the 20 day ma on the monthly stopped any rally attempts.  On the weekly both the 20 and 100 day ma intersected at the same price last week.  Bad news for the canadian.  It has some support at 96.00.  Longer term it's 94.00.  Closed 96.68, down .53.
 
MAR AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR:  Switching to March.  I shorted it today.  It is most likely headed for the gap on the daily at 96.64.  Keep stops at 101.02.  Closed 99.20, down .37.
Position:  Short 99.39 (12.13).
Projection:  96.00.
 
MAR E-MINI S&P:   Switching to March.  It ran into trouble at 1250.00 and triggered a sell as a result of failing to hold over that resistance.  It is now under the 150 day ma and trying to hold at the 20.  The weekly chart has a sell.  The monthly is very unusual as the 20, 100 and 150 day ma all intersect at the same area around 1200.00.  That is very unusual and could give the market support.  The key here is that number.  Not holding it suggests a try for 1000.00.  Closed 1220.25, down 9.00.
 
MAR 10 YR. NOTES:  Switching to March.  Somethings never change.  They continue to be in the same range between 131.000 and 129.250.  This has been going on since November 1.  Just watching.  Closed 131.070, down .030.