India soy complex under pressure on arrival pressure
Soybean prices declined on Monday owing to the higher arrivals of 3.6 lakh bags across India amidst of slack demand which dampened the prices.
Spot price remained around Rs.2400-2425/ quintal across major markets which supported prices at futures. CBOT market was closed on account of Dr. Martin Luther King day.
Soy oil prices decreased on Monday owing to subdued demand for edible oils across major markets. Domestic demand for oil is reported to be sluggish which kept the prices lower. Spot prices decreased by around Rs. 2-6/10kg which also had same impact on prices.
Mustard seed prices declined on Monday in line with soy complex across major markets. Good demand for meal and oil limited the down fall in near month contracts.
Activities were very limited due to regional festivals which kept spot prices and arrivals almost stable yesterday.
Courtesy: Karvy Comtrade Ltd.
NCDEX turmeric ends down on higher stocks
Bumper crop of Turmeric this year and sufficient carryover stocks is keeping market sentiments bearish. Spot mandis remained closed on the occasion of Pongal while Futures ended 0.39% down on Monday.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad mandi stood around 1,000 bags while Erode mandi witnessed arrivals of 10000 bags on Friday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010- 11. Erode is expected to produce45 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of 29% as compared to previous year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- November 2011 stood at 58,000 tonnes as compared to 35500 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 56%.
Targets set by the Spices Board have already been met till October 2011. Exports are expected to touch new historical levels in 2011-12.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX jeera trades down on selling pressure
Reports of better area covered jeera and thereby better output led spot prices to witness selling pressure in the spot markets and ended 0.22% lower on Monday. Futures however witnessed mixed sentiment and settled 0.71% higher yesterday.
According to Gujarat farm ministry, area sown under jeera till January 9, 2012 stood at 3.649 lakh hectares (lh) up 49.2% as compared to last year while area covered in Rajasthan till date is expected to be 3.03 lakh hectares as compared to 3.30 lakh hectares in the same period last year. Carryover stocks of jeera is expected to be around 9-10 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.
Prices in the global markets of Indian origin are quoting around $2,800-2,950/tn while Syrian origin is quoting at $3,100-$3,150/tn.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 4,000 bags while offtakes stood at 5,000 bags on Monday.
Production of jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 35 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders).
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011-November 2011 stood at 26500 tonnes as compared to 20,750 tonnes in 2010-11, an increase of 27.7%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX pepper settles lower on weak fundamentals
Lacklustre demand from the overseas and domestic market led Spot prices to remain weak and settled 1.28% lower on Monday. Pepper however witnessed buying at the support levels and settled 0.31% higher yesterday.
Demand from the overseas and domestic buyers remains dull currently as buyers remain absent from the market. Fresh arrivals from the domestic will gain momentum at the end of the month (January 2012). Indian parity in the international market is being offered at $6,800/tonne while Vietnam and Indonesia are offering its ASTA pepper at $6,500/qtl.
Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011- November 2011 stood at 17,000 tonnes as compared to 11,850 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 43.6%.
According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper during January to October 2011 from six major exporting countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka) was around 2.04 lakh tonnes a decline of 4.6% as compared to 2.14 lakh tonne in the same period last year.
* NCDEX guar seed extends uptrend on weak arrivals
* NCDEX chana trades down on arrival pressure
* India soy complex under pressure on arrival pressure
* MCX cardamom trades higher on export demand
Lacklustre demand from the overseas and domestic market led Spot prices to remain weak and settled 1.28% lower on Monday. Pepper however witnessed buying at the support levels and settled 0.31% higher yesterday.
Demand from the overseas and domestic buyers remains dull currently as buyers remain absent from the market. Fresh arrivals from the domestic will gain momentum at the end of the month (January 2012). Indian parity in the international market is being offered at $6,800/tonne while Vietnam and Indonesia are offering its ASTA pepper at $6,500/qtl.
Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011- November 2011 stood at 17,000 tonnes as compared to 11,850 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 43.6%.
According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper during January to October 2011 from six major exporting countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka) was around 2.04 lakh tonnes a decline of 4.6% as compared to 2.14 lakh tonne in the same period last year.
Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 40% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 29,000 tonnes as compared to 48,500 tonnes in the last year.
During Jan to Oct 2011, Brazil exported 25,331 tonnes of pepper a rise of 4.74% as compared to previous year. U.S. remained the major destination of the pepper imports.
Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in Kochi market stood at 10 tonnes while offtakes stood at 20 tonnes on Monday.
Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of 24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%. Pepper production in Vietnam and Indonesia is projected at 1.10 lakh tonnes while that in Indonesia is projected to be 41 thousand tonnes. (Source: Financial Express). Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Peppertradeboard)
On the other hand production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to be scale down further by 5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX soybean tumbles on weak global cues
NCDEX February soybean futures traded lower as weak overseas market as lower demand due to euro zone concern. Total arrivals of soybean in Madhya Pradesh were 1.25 lakh bags, Maharashtra 75,000 bags and Rajasthan was 40,000 bags (Bag=100 Kg) Monday. As per WASDE, USDA which is released on January 12, 201, U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is estimated at 91.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tonnes from last month.
Soybean production is estimated at 3.056 billion bushels, up 10 million based on increased yields. The soybean yield is estimated at 41.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from the previous estimate. Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 457.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tonnes. Global soybean production is projected at 257 million tons, down 2.2 million mostly due to lower production forecasts for South America.
The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 50.5 million tons, down 1.5 million due to lower projected area and yields. The Brazil soybean crop is reduced 1 million tons to 74 million reflecting hot, dry conditions in recent weeks. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 74.8 mln tons, down 0.7 million tons.
Rape/mustard Seed: NCDEX April RM Seed futures traded lower as weakness in other oilseeds and vegetable oil. Weak overseas market on euro zone concern also added bearish market sentiments. However, for long term perspective, RM seed is expected to trade higher as lower production estimates of RM Seed as lower sowing acreage coupled with crop damage report.
As per PIB, Total area under oilseeds cultivation is reported to be 80.96 lakh ha against 85.5 lakh ha last year as January 13, 2012. The country's RM seed sowing has totaled 64.83 lakh ha as on January 13, down 4.96% from 68.21 lakh ha in the year-ago period. RM seed accounts for about 70% of India's winter-season oilseed output.
Refined Soy Oil: NCDEX February refined soy oil futures ended lower on account of lower global demand of edible oil on back of euro zone concern. Lower export figures of Malaysian Palm Oil during the Jan 1-15 and lower quotes of imported edible oil (CPO and Soy) also added bearish market sentiments. As per SGS (cargo surveyor), Malaysian Palm Oil exports in the first 15 days of January 2012 fell by 11% to 575,833 tonnes as compared to last month of during the same period.
Imported crude soy-oil price quoted Rs 64,500 /tonnes on Monday as compared to Rs 65,000/tonne on Friday. Imported crude palm oil price quoted lower at Rs 53,000 /tonnes on Monday as compared to Rs 54,000/tonnes on Friday (source: SEA). As per Solvent Extractors Association of India, India imported 654,714 tonnes edible oil in December, down around 21% from the month of Nov 2011. In the first two months of the current oil year (November- December), edible oil imports were at 14.82 lakh tonnes as against 13.82 lakh tonsa year ago.
Current stock of edible oils as on 1st January, 2012 at various ports is estimated at 620,000 tons (CPO 420,000 tons, RBD Palmolein 100,000 tons, Degummed Soybean Oil 35,000 tons and Crude Sunflower Oil 65,000 tons) and about 720,000 tons in pipelines.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX sugar edges lower on subdued demand
Sugar prices traded rangebound with no clear cues regarding decontrol and exports of sugar amidst dull demand from the domestic and settled Discussion on decontrol of sugar and levy sugar was scheduled on January 16, 2012. Finance Minister assured that Empowered group of Ministers would take the decision on the industry demand as soon as possible (Source: Newswire18).
Sugar recovery in Maharashtra during October 2011-December 2011 stood at 10.35% as compared to 9.80% in the same period previous year.
However, Sugar recovery in U.P. is lesser at 8.47% till 3rd January 2012 as compared to 8.73% in the same period previous year.
The government has released lower monthly quota for the month of January at 17.16 lakh tonnes which includes 2.16 lakh tonnes of levy quota and 15 lakh tonnes of non levy quota. The quota for January is much lower compared to January 2011 monthly quota of 19.18 lakh tonnes and last month’s quota of 19.07 lakh tonnes.
According to the Food Minister, Ministry is planning to discuss with States, the Finance and Agriculture Ministries on removing some of the controls such as doing away with the mandatory obligation to offer sugar for the public distribution system (PDS) in the New Year(Source: Hindu Business Line.
Liffe Futures traded rangebound and settled 055% higher on Monday on account of lacklutre trades.
Domestic Sugar updates
Sugar output in Maharashtra rose 18.8% between Oct 01 and Dec 31, 2011 to 27.5 lakh tonnes. The output was earlier down by 6%. According to ISMA, India is likely to have crushed 14.4 mln tn cane during Oct 1-Nov 23 and produced 7.58 mln tn sugar vs 6.46 mil tn during the current crushing season.
Indian Sugarcane production is estimated higher by 0.9% at 342 mn tn for 2011-12 season starting October 1, 2011. ISMA has projected sugar production at 26 million tonnes for 2011-12.
With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 32 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 23 mn tn. Thus there is a wide scope for exports from India.
Global Sugar Updates
Thailand has crushed 9.4 mn tn cane this season against 3.3 mn tn a year ago. Thailand sugar output could reach to 9.9 million tonnes in 2011-12 compared to 9.64 million tonnes in 2010-11.
According to UNICA, Sugar output in Brazil's center-south from the start of the season to January 01,2012 stood at 31.2 million tonnes down 7% for this time a year ago. Total 2011-12 crush of sugar stood at 492.23 million tonnes down 11% from a year earlier.
Swiss sugar consultancy Kingsman lowered its global 2011-12 sugar surplus estimate by 940,000 tn to 8.22 mln tn.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX chana slumps on arrival pressure
Chana futures declined sharply by 3.98% on Monday as the arrivals of fresh crop started in Maharashtra. As the Rabi sowing season is almost nearing its end, area covered under the Pulses and Chana are probably to miss the target.
According to the Rajasthan farm department’s first advance estimates for Rabi crops, Chana output is estimated 7.8% lower at 14.75 lakh tonnes in 2011-12 season against 16 lakh tonnes in 2010-11.
Rajasthan is the third largest Chana producing state in India contributing around 10-12% share in total Indian Chana output after MP and Maharashtra. Although sowing of Chana is higher in Rajasthan, unfavorable climate is expected to lower the yield of the Chana crop in the coming season harvesting of which would begin in February in Rajasthan.
Chana sowing across India as on January 13th 2012 is 5.23% down at 8.722 million hectares as compared to 9.22 million hectares in the same period previous year. Highest decline in area is witnessed in Maharashtra where sowing is down 23%, while in Karnataka it is down by 19%.
Crop progress and Production
Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. Sowing of Chana began on a brisk note; however, the progress was not satisfactory in Maharashtra, Karnataka, UP, Bihar and AP and thus acreage has declined drastically.
Further, unfavorable weather in Central and Southern India may lower Chana yield in the coming season. Except in Rajasthan, all other major producing states i.e MP, Maharashtra, Karnataka and AP are likely to witness a fall in output in the coming season harvesting of which would begin after mid January.
Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn on account of 10% decline in Kharif Pulses output.
Although government has targeted higher Rabi Pulses output, it is difficult to achieve the same taking into consideration the sowing progress and prevailing weather conditions.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX guar seed extends uptrend
Guar seed and Guar gum made new highs for 9th straight session on robust exports and expectations that stocks might decline in the long run caused by firm exports. Expectations of tight supplies in the long run owing to lower output have led to whopping 128% rise in Guar prices since last 2 months.
Forward Market Commission on Monday, January 16, 2012 has imposed additional special cash margin of 20% to be collected in cash.
Thus, total margin levied on the long side will be 60% which shall be collected in cash. This will be effective from January 18, 2012. Also no fresh position can be created in the January 2012 contract including intraday and only squaring of the existing position would be allowed.
Before imposing the additional special margin, FMC on Wednesday January 11, 2012 took another measure to curb the rising price of Guar seed and gum viz- Cut in position limits w.e.f. FMC on 11th January, 2012, directed the exchanges to cut position limit in Guar seed by 20% for brokers and clients and in Guar gum by 40% for brokers. Position limit in Guar gum for clients remain unchanged.
The revision aggregate position limit in Guar seed for member would be 1200 lots and for client 240 lots and for the near month contract member limit would be 400 lots and client limit would be 80 lots. The revision aggregate position limit in Guar gum for member would be 300 lots and for client 100 lots and for the near month contract member limit would be 60 lots and client limit would be 20 lots.
According to the second advance estimates from Rajasthan farm department, Guar seed output has been revised upward from 11.36 lakh tonnes to 12.09 lakh tonnes and area covered has been revised upward at 30.9 lakh ha against 29 lakh hectares in the first advance estimates.
Production
After harvesting a record 15 lakh tonnes of Guar crop in Rajasthan in 2010-11season (Oct 10- Sep 11), output in the current season has declined to around 12.09 lakh tonnes (Second advance Estimates).
Despite higher production prices had touched record levels of Rs 4770 per qtl in2010-11 on the back of robust exports which doubled from 2.1 lakh tonnes to 4.03 lakh tonnes in 2010-11.
In the current season 2011-12, which started in October 2011, output is estimated 25% lower than previous year, while exports continue to remain firm registering 68% growth during the first 6 months of FY 2011- 12 (Apr 11-Mar -12). Further. Carryover stocks of Guar in the current season is at lowest levels around 1.5-2 lakh tonnes against normal 4-4.5 lakh tonnes.
Thus, with lower carryover stocks and drop in output, the supplies would not be sufficient in the long run if Guar gum export trend continue to remain the same as last year, thus supporting the upside rally in the longer term.
Exports
Exports of Guar gum from April to September 2011 stood at 2.86 lakh tn a rise of 68 % compared to 1.70 lakh tn during the same period last year.
In 2010-11 fiscal, Guar gum exports were almost doubled to 4.03 lakh tonnes.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities