NCDEX turmeric finishes up on higher stocks
Turmeric Futures witnessed mixed sentiments throughout the day and settled 0.13% higher on Friday. There are reports that overseas orders might improve on account of lower prices.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode mandi stood around 1,000 bags on Friday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010- 11.
Erode is expected to produce45 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of 29% as compared to previous year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- October 2011 stood at 50,000 tonnes as compared to 32,000 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 56%. Targets set by the Spices Board have already been met till October 2011.
Exports are expected to touch new historical levels in 2011-12.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX jeera drops on selling pressure
Jeera Futures witnessed further selling owing to long liquidation by the market participants and settled 0.57% lower on Friday.
Fragile demand from the domestic buyers led jeera Spot prices to settle 0.93% lower yesterday. However, depleting arrivals due to end of the season amidst better offtakes is likely to support jeera prices. Also, reports of fresh export enquiries supported prices in the last few trading sessions.
According to Gujarat farm ministry, area sown under jeera till December 26, 2011 stood at 2.78 lakh hectares (lh) up 21.5% as compared to last year. Carryover stocks of jeera is expected to be around 9-10 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.
Prices in the global markets of Indian origin are quoting around $2,800-2,950/tn while Syrian origin is quoting at $3,100-$3,150/tn.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 6,000 bags while offtakes stood at 6,500 bags on Friday.
Production of jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 35 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders).
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011-Ocotber 2011 stood at 20500 tonnes as compared to 19,800 tonnes in 2010-11, an increase of 3.5%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX pepper remains lower on subdued spot demand
Spot prices continued to remain weak on account of dull demand from the overseas and domestic buyers and settled 1.23% lower on Friday. Futures on the other hand traded weak in the early part of the trading session but witnessed short coverings towards the end of the session and settled 0.66% high yesterday.
Demand from the overseas and domestic buyers continues to remain dull as buyers remain absent from the market due to New Year holidays. Fresh arrivals from the domestic will gain momentum at the end of the month (January 2012).
Indian parity in the international market is being offered at $6,950/tonne.
Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011- October 2011 stood at 13,750 tonnes as compared to 10350 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 32.8%.
According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper during January to October 2011 from six major exporting countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka) was around 2.04 lakh tonnes a decline of 4.6% as compared to 2.14 lakh tonne in the same period last year.
Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 40% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 29,000 tonnes as compared to 48,500 tonnes in the last year.
During Jan to Oct 2011, Brazil exported 25,331 tonnes of pepper a rise of 4.74% as compared to previous year. U.S. remained the major destination of the pepper imports.
Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in Kochi market stood at 14 tonnes while offtakes stood at 24 tonnes on Friday.
Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of 24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%. Pepper production in Vietnam and Indonesia is projected at 1.10 lakh tonnes while that in Indonesia is projected to be 41 thousand tonnes. (Source: Financial Express).
On the other hand production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to be scale down further by 5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX soybean ends lower on long liquidation
NCDEX January soybean futures traded lower on third consecutive trading session as weak overseas market and long liquidations at higher levels also added bearish market sentiments.
As per Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA) show oilmeal exports jumped to 953,526 tonnes in December 2011, up by 24.48% as compared to 765,954 tonnes in the corresponding month last year.
During the first nine months of the current financial year, Indian traders managed to ship 38,68,831 tonnes of oil-meals — a rise of 23 per cent from 31,47,512 tonnes during the same period of last year.
Better kharif soybean crop, fall in rupee and positive crushing parity boosted processing and export of oil-meals during the third quarter of the current fiscal year, which witnessed four per cent growth in the shipment.
During the last quarter of 2011 ending December, total shipment was recorded at 18,34,714 tonnes, as compared to 17,71,303 tonnes in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The major destinations for Indian soy oil meal exports were Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, China and Thailand.
Total arrivals of soybean in Madhya Pradesh were 1.8 lakh bags on Thursday, Maharashtra was 1 lakh bags as compared to 75,000 bags on Tuesday and Rajasthan was 90,000 bags as compared to 60,000 bags (Bag=100 Kg).
Rape/mustard Seed
NCDEX January RM Seed futures ended slightly lower on account of weakness in other oilseeds and edible oil on Friday. Uttar Pradesh mustard acreage increased to 663,141 hectares till date as compared to 657,228 hectare.
The country's mustard rabi sowing has totaled 6.46 million hectares as of Thursday, down 5.4% from 6.82 million hectares in the year-ago period. Mustard seed accounts for about 70% of India's winter-season oilseed output.
Refined Soy Oil
NCDEX January refined soy oil futures ended on second consecutive trading sessions on account of lower demand from euro zone on debt concern. Indonesia’s higher production estimates of palm oil (25 million tonnes) this year (due to increased plantation acreage), up by 6.32% as compared to 23.5 million tonnes last year.
As per Intertek (cargo surveyor), Malaysian Palm Oil exports in the month of December 2011 fell by 2.6% to 1.49 million tonnes as compared to last month. Imported crude soy-oil price quoted Rs 67,000 /tonnes on Friday, unchanged as compared to Friday. Imported crude palm oil price quoted lower at Rs 54,600 /tonnes on Friday as compared to Rs 55,700/tonnes on Thursday (source: SEA).
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX sugar tumbles on ample stocks
Sugar Futures remained weak for the fourth straight day on account of sufficient stocks at the domestic market and settled 1.34% lower on Friday. Also, reports of better Sugar recovery in Maharashtra during October 2011-December 2011 is pressurizing prices.
Sugar recovery in Maharashtra during October 2011-December 2011 stood at 10.35% as compared to 9.80% in the same period previous year. However, Sugar recovery in U.P. is lesser at 8.47% till 3rd January 2012 as compared to 8.73% in the same period previous year.
The government has released lower monthly quota for the month of January at 17.16 lakh tonnes which includes 2.16 lakh tonnes of levy quota and 15 lakh tonnes of non levy quota. The quota for January is much lower compared to January 2011 monthly quota of 19.18 lakh tonnes and last month’s quota of 19.07 lakh tonnes.
According to the Food Minister, Ministry is planning to discuss with States, the Finance and Agriculture Ministries on removing some of the controls such as doing away with the mandatory obligation to offer sugar for the public distribution system (PDS) in the New Year(Source: Hindu Business Line.
Liffe white sugar and ICE Raw sugar witnessed mixed trades on account of lacklustre demand and settled 0.08% and 0.69% higher respectively on Friday.
Domestic Sugar updates
Sugar output in Maharashtra rose 18.8% between Oct 01 and Dec 31, 2011 to 27.5 lakh tonnes. The output was earlier down by 6%. Output increased on account of higher recovery rate and number of mills that are operational this year.
According to ISMA, India is likely to have crushed 14.4 mln tn cane during Oct 1-Nov 23 and produced 7.58 mln tn sugar vs 6.46 mil tn during the current crushing season.
Indian Sugarcane production is estimated higher by 0.9% at 342 mn tn for 2011-12 season starting October 1, 2011. ISMA has projected sugar production at 26 million tonnes for 2011-12.
With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 32 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 23 mn tn. Thus there is a wide scope for exports from India.
Global Sugar Updates
Thailand has crushed 9.4 mn tn cane this season against 3.3 mn tn a year ago. Thailand sugar output could reach to 9.9 million tonnes in 2011-12 compared to 9.64 million tonnes in 2010-11.
According to UNICA, Sugar output in Brazil's center-south in the first half of November fell 13.8 percent from a year ago, as more mills ended crushing the 2011/12 cane crop. Sugar production in the period totaled 1.26 million tonnes, compared with 1.46 million tonnes a year earlier.
Swiss sugar consultancy Kingsman lowered its global 2011-12 sugar surplus estimate by 940,000 tn to 8.22 mln tn.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX chana settles higher on extended buying
Improved buying by the market participants led Spot prices and Futures to extend gains of the previous day and settled 0.80% and 0.18% higher respectively on Friday. Lower acreage under Chana is also lending support to the prices. As the Rabi sowing season is coming to an end, area covered under the Pulses and Chana are probably to miss the target.
According to the Farm Ministry area sown under Rabi pulses as on 5th January 2012 is down by 1.20% to 14.066 million hectares as compared to 14.238 million hectares in the same period previous year.
Chana sowing till January 5th 2012 is 5.23% down at 8.72 million hectares as compared to 9.22 million hectares in the same period previous year. Highest decline in area is witnessed in Maharashtra where sowing is down 23%, while in Karnataka it is down by 19%.
Crop progress and Production
Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. Sowing of Chana began on a brisk note; however, the progress was not satisfactory in Maharashtra, Karnataka, UP, Bihar and AP and thus acreage has declined drastically.
Further, unfavorable weather in Central and Southern India may lower Chana yield in the coming season. Except in Rajasthan, all other major producing states i.e MP, Maharashtra, Karnataka and AP are likely to witness a fall in output in the coming season harvesting of which would begin after mid January.
Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn on account of 10% decline in Kharif Pulses output.
Although government has targeted higher Rabi Pulses output, it is difficult to achieve the same taking into consideration the sowing progress and prevailing weather conditions.
According to the first advance estimates, Kharif Pulses output for 2011- 12 season is down by 9.6% at 6.43 mt. Tur output estimates is up by 0.35% while moong & Urad is down by 21% & 16% respectively. Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 9% as on 23rd September, 2011. 109.41 lakh ha has been covered against 120.3 lakh ha in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX guar seed surges on firm export demand
Guar Seed and Guar gum futures continued its upward trend and despite FMC issuing show cause notice to 5 brokers in Rajasthan and settled at the upper freeze of 4% on Friday. Despite several efforts taken by the regulator, Guar futures continued to trade higher on expectations of tight supplies in the long run if exports continue to remain firm in the current season.
FMC issued show cause notice to 5 brokers in Rajasthan and sought additional information from 50 others following a preliminary investigation, which found irregularities in trade in guar gum and guar seed futures trade. (Source: Reuters & Newswire)
Despite imposition of 30% special margin bulls continued to build fresh long positions on expectations of robust exports and lower output. Total margin on long positions on the Complex has risen to 40%.
Reports of discrepancies in the latest export figures released by the APEDA (Agricultural & Processed Food Products Export Development Authority) coupled with talks of high manipulation has also led to high volatility in the Guar prices.
In addition to this FMC is mulling a last resort to cool Guargum and Guar seed prices through introduction of “trade to trade” for the first time in commodities derivatives market (Source: Business standard).
Production
After harvesting a record 15 lakh tonnes of Guar crop in Rajasthan in 2010-11season (Oct 10- Sep 11), output in the current season has declined to around 11 lakh tonnes.
Despite higher production prices had touched record levels of Rs 4770 per qtl on the back of robust exports which doubled from 2.1 lakh tonnes to 4.03 lakh tonnes in 2010-11.
In the current season 2011-12, which started in October, output is estimated 25% lower than previous year, while exports continue to remain firm registering 68% growth during the first 6 months of FY 2011- 12 (Apr 11-Mar -12). Further. Carryover stocks of Guar in the current season is at lowest levels around 1.5-2 lakh tonnes against normal 4-4.5 lakh tonnes.
Thus, with lower carryover stocks and drop in output, the supplies would not be sufficient in the long run if Guar gum export trend continue to remain the same as last year, thus supporting the upside rally in the longer term.
Exports
Exports of Guar gum from April to September 2011 stood at 2.86 lakh tn a rise of 68 % compared to 1.70 lakh tn during the same period last year. In 2010-11 fiscal, Guar gum exports were almost doubled to 4.03 lakh tonnes.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities