Commodities Market Update

Buy December mini wheat.  Buy 653 1/4 stop.  Protective stop 616.  Potential projection 700.

Reasons for the Trade:

1.  On the monthly chart wheat is forming a key reversal bottom this month - suggesting a trend change from down to up.
2.  The weekly chart triggered a buy this week.
3.  On the weekly chart, wheat has held at the 150 day ma for several weeks.  That is positive.
4.  On the daily chart, wheat rallied over the downtrend formed since the late August high in mid October - suggesting a trend change from down to up.
5.  On the daily chart wheat rallied and closed back over the 20 day ma today.

Sell March sugar.  Sell 26.47 stop.  Protective stop 27.12.  Potential projection  24.00.

Reasons for the Trade:

1.  The monthly chart has a major key reversal top and sell signal that are still intact.
2.  On the monthly chart sugar is in resistance.
3.  The weekly chart formed a key reversal top last week.
4.  On the weekly chart, sugar has not be able to get back over the 20 day ma for the last three weeks.
5.  On the daily chart sugar triggered a buy on Tuesday and negated it on Wednesday.  Normally when a market does so that quickly it follows through in the new direction.
6.  On the daily chart sugar sold off under the 100 day ma yesterday and today's rally was stopped by it.
7.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

GRAIN COMMENTS:  

DEC CORN:  It is once again over 650 being pushed up there with the spill over euphoria about the "euro deal."  It still has both the 100 and 150 day ma hovering above it and that gap up at 865 1/4.  Technically it triggered a sell yesterday and so far, at least, that has not been negated. I suspect it will be.  Just watching.  Closed 651 1/2, up 14 1/4.

DEC MINI WHEAT:  Stops were reached yesterday.  With the overall euphoric reaction of the markets today to the "euro deal", it was right back up close to the 650 resistance.  Like cotton, its consolidation continues to look like a bottom formation.  I will try to buy it again.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 644, up 24 1/2.
Position:  Long 636 1/4.  Exit 626 1/4 (10.26).  Loss $155 (+comm/fees).

NOV MINI BEANS:  I lowered the stops this morning in response to the market strength elsewhere - suspecting it would over flow into the grains.  It did and I was stopped out.  They still have the issue of the 1250 resistance and then the 1275 resistance.  Just watching.  Closed 1235, up 24 1/2.
Position:  Short 1221 1/2 (10.20).  Exit 1237 3/4 (10.27).  Loss $217.50 (+comm/fees).

DEC MEAL:  Last time it was still hanging around the 320.00 level.  Well it still is!  Surprising since the other markets have reacted more aggressively to euroland's "deal."  Still just watching.  Closed 323.50, up 6.50.

DEC BEAN OIL:  It triggered a sell yesterday and the stops were reached today.  I lowered the stops this morning as I did with the beans.  Just watching.  Closed 52.11, up 1.22.

Position:  Short 51.03 (10.26).  Exit 52.18 (10.27).  Loss $745 (+comm/fees).

MEAT COMMENTS:

DEC HOGS:  They reached interim support yesterday and held so I took profit.  They rallied earlier today but then sold off to make a new low at 86.50.  Just watching.  Closed 86.65, down .37.
Position:  Short 88.62 (10.24).  Exit 87.55 (10.26).  Profit $375 (-comm/fees).
Projection:  86.00.

DEC CATTLE:  Today they sold off under their 100 and 120 day ma.  That is negative.  They are also now under the 120.00 support.  I suspect they are headed for the gap down at 117.17.  Closed 119.90, down .52.

SOFTS:

DEC COTTON:  I have mentioned many times that I keep seeing a bottom being formed.  Today it got over the 20 day ma that was a resistance issue and rallied to 103.91.  A set back to 100.75 or 102.00 could be a buying area.  Closed 104.32, up 4.00.

JAN ORANGE JUICE:  Long term it looks headed for the old high area of 200.00.  On the daily chart it is currently being held back by the 180.00 resistance area.  It could set back from this level - considering that on the daily chart it has already had a significant rally without a correction.  Considering the consolidation formed under 165.00, a set back could be an opportunity to buy.  Closed 174.90, down 2.45.

DEC COFFEE:  Today it continues to have trouble at the 240.00 resistance.  What that recent rally over 250.00 was all about is anybody's guess.  It sure didn't last as on Tuesday it took it all back and is trading into support now.  Just watching.  Closed 234.60, up .90.

DEC COCOA:  It has rallied over the 27.00 resistance area.  Long term it has resistance at 28.00.  Waiting for a correction to go long.  Closed 27.56, up .63.

MAR SUGAR:  In spite of the euroland situation, sugar did not respond like so many other markets.  It attempted several times to get over the 100 day ma today and could not.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 26.86, up .51.

METALS COMMENTS:

DEC COPPER:  The key reversal it had formed on Tuesday was negated the very next day.  Today it rallied to 371.90.  It will start to reach resistance at 375.00 but the main resistance is at 400.00.  It will also have both the 100 and 150 day ma to deal with at that level on the daily chart. The monthly formed a key reversal this month but has not gotten back over the uptrend line that if failed last month.  It has a sell signal that is still intact.  The weekly triggered a buy this week and reached the 100 day ma today.  If copper reached 400.00, it will still be under the uptrend line that it violated several weeks ago.  The 400.00 level will be a challenge.  Just watching.  Closed 369.20, up 20.20.

DEC MINI GOLD:  In Tuesday's Update I suggested that if it could follow through with the rally it could reach 1750.00.  It reached 1751.80 today.  There is resistance there but the heavier resistance is up at 1775.00.  Just watching.  Closed 1747.70, up 24.20.

DEC MINI SILVER:  Today's high was 35.375.  It will have both the 100 and 150 day ma to contend with at approximately 37.00 and 37.750.  It is in resistance now going back to May.  Just watching.  Closed 35.112, up 1.802.

ENERGY, CURRENCIES & BONDS:

DEC MINI CRUDE OIL:  It failed the 100 day ma yesterday but was right back over it today.  The 150 day ma intersects at 96.00.  If this wave up can follow through it could reach 97.50.  Just watching.  Closed 93.96, up 3.76.

DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN:  It sure likes to consolidate.  After breaking out of an earlier consolidation that went on for over 2 1/2 months last Friday, it has started consolidating again at a higher level.  It does have a buy signal and maybe it will follow through instead of consolidating for another 2 1/2 months! Just watching.  Closed 131.75, up 36.

DEC SWISS FRANC:  The breakout from the head and shoulders bottom has started to follow through.  Today's high 116.82.  The first level of resistance is up at 117.75.  The swiss was very oversold and the rally should have more follow through up to 120.00 to 120.22.  Just watching.  Closed 116.42, up 2.94.

DEC DOLLAR INDEX:  After holding at the 76.000 level for several days and forming a key reversal bottom, it sold off today to 74.860 in response to the "euro deal."  It is now is support but could work lower into the support at 74.500 down to 74.000.  Just watching.  Closed 75.011, 1.462.

DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY:  The fx had formed a key reversal top yesterday but it was quickly negated today and rallied to 142.41.  It is back over both the 100 and 150 ma.  Closed 142.01, up 311.

DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR:  An inside day yesterday on the daily chart triggered a buy today.  It rallied into resistance and stopped.  The same occurred on the weekly chart and monthly chart.  On all three charts the Canadian is still in a downtrend.  Closed 100.81, up 1.57.

DEC AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR:  It rallied over both the 100 and 150 day ma today on the daily chart.  On the weekly chart it will reach resistance around 107.50.  Today's high 106.87.  On the daily chart the contract high is 108.75.  Just watching.  Closed 106.58, up 3.35.

DEC 10 YR. NOTES:  Last time I thought they could rally to 129.220.  They never made it.  With the "euro deal" they sold off and made a new low at 127.060.  The current support is at approximately 126.210.  Just watching.  Closed 127.100, down 1.085.