Key themes
The outlook for commodity markets is slowly turning in a more positive direction. Recent monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, the lower USD and the stimulus targeting the Chinese property market have all been beneficial for global demand for commodities. Furthermore, the supply side of the market for several commodities has started to tighten - most notably the oil market where US crude production is falling steadily. Tail risks from disruptive weather and deterioration of the geopolitical situation still loom and could trigger a surge in precautionary demand, although high stocks should limit such need.
Oil
The lower USD and tighter supply have driven the recent rally in oil prices. Towards the end of the year and in 2017 higher global income growth along with a further rebalancing of the oil market and a further decline in the USD should lead to additional price increases. We recommend that consumers hedge exposure in 2017.
Metals
We are looking for improvement in Chinese construction activity, which should support a recovery in base metals prices along with lower supply growth and a weaker USD and CNY. We recommend consumers to hedge exposure in the rest of 2016 and in 2017 at current low levels.
Grains
Supply has tightened and sent prices on oilseeds higher. Potential disruptive La Niña weather later this year may add to this and push prices higher, while high stock levels limit upside effect on prices. Consumers may consider hedging the weather risk.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below