We look for 2013 to be a year of two halves: H1 is set for a decent performance fuelled by a rebound in activity globally led by China and the U.S. and a weaker USD due to continued Fed easing.
The second half, in contrast, could see a stabilisation and even price declines in some cases as, notably, China sees a peak, a Fed exit from quantitative easing looms and improving supply prospects in the energy sector, in particular, weigh.
The following five market themes are expected to be key drivers of commodity markets this year:
1. Cyclical rebound and aggressive monetary easing to support risk appetite.
2. We expect an end to the commodities super-cycle in the energy sector with potential spill-over to both metals and agricultural.
3. North America's shale adventure, Brazil's pre-salt and Iraq's production ambitions are set to induce marked changes in energy trade patterns.
4. OPEC faces quite a few headaches caused by both internal and external factors.
5. Forward curves will shift towards backwardation as supply increases start to weigh on far-dated contracts.
The publication also contains our updated commodity forecasts.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.
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Commodities 2013: Five Market Drivers
Published 01/25/2013, 01:00 PM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
Commodities 2013: Five Market Drivers
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