We see EUR/USD peaking near term and expect a new fall below 1.15 in H2.
We are still bullish on the cross for 2019 but need the Fed to be on hold and/or for an ECB hike to be in sight.
We close our bullish EUR/USD seagull (approximately 3M (NYSE:MMM) left to maturity) with a 1.33% loss.
In FX Top Trades 2018 - How to position for the year ahead (6 December 2017), we recommended positioning for upside in EUR/USD over the course of 2018 , with the ECB's move towards policy 'normalisation' as a key argument. However, risks have shifted (see below) and we see EUR/USD peaking near term.
What happened? At the start of 2018, Donald Trump's administration's 'America first' rhetoric and a more or less explicitly stated preference for a weaker USD briefly lifted the pair above 1.25. However, then the US-led trade war came along and while the ECB put an end date on QE, its forward guidance effectively put rate hike hopes on hold, which weighed on EUR/USD ahead of the summer.
Where are we now? The FX market has recently started to question the Fed's determination to hike but we believe Jerome Powell and company remain on course for two more hikes in 2018, which would add to USD carry. Trade woes have also eased recently but we still deem it is too early to write this off as a source of USD support as we expect further escalation of the conflict. Further, we also expect Italian fiscal sustainability to weigh on the euro when the budget discussions start in late September.
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