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China Manufacturing PMI Disappoints, HSBC PMI Surprises Analysts

Published 02/01/2013, 06:27 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
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China official Manufacturing PMI disappoints while HSBC PMI surprises as analysts question the accuracy around Lunar New Year

Economic Data

(CN) CHINA JAN MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.4 V 51.0E

(CN) CHINA JAN HSBC FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.3 V 52.0E (two-year high)

(AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Q/Q: 0.2% V 0.3%E (3-quarter low); Y/Y: 1.0% V 1.2%E (lowest since Q2 of 2010)

(AU) AUSTRALIA JAN RPDATA-RISMARK HOUSE PX Y/Y: +1.2% V -0.3%

(AU) AUSTRALIA JAN AIG PERFORMANCE OF MANUFACTURING INDEX (PMI): 40.2 V 44.3 PRIOR (11th month of contraction and lowest level since June 2009)

(NZ) NEW ZEALAND DEC NET MIGRATION: 0 V 550 PRIOR

(IN) INDIA JAN MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.2 V 54.7 PRIOR

(JP) JAPAN JAN VEHICLE SALES Y/Y: -12.9% V -3.4% PRIOR

(JP) JAPAN DEC OVERALL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING Y/Y: -0.7% V -0.2%E (3-month low)

(JP) JAPAN DEC JOBLESS RATE: 4.2% V 4.1%E (first rise since Apr 2012); JOB-TO-APPLICANT RATIO: 0.82 V 0.80E

(KR) SOUTH KOREA JAN HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.9 V 50.1 PRIOR

(KR) SOUTH KOREA JAN EXTERNAL TRADE BALANCE: $874M V $880ME

(KR) SOUTH KOREA JAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) M/M: 0.6% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.5%E (below 2% for 3rd month); CORE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: 1.2% V 1.2% PRIOR

(ID) INDONESIA JAN INFLATION M/M: 1.0% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 4.6% V 4.5%E; CORE INFLATION: 4.3% V 4.4%E

(ID) INDONESIA HSBC JAN MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.7 V 50.7 PRIOR

(TH) THAILAND JAN CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.5%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.7%E

(TW) TAIWAN JAN HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.5 V 50.6 PRIOR

(VN) VIETNAM JAN HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.1 V 49.3 PRIOR

Markets Snapshot (as of 05:30 GMT)

Nikkei225 +0.7%

S&P/ASX +0.9%

Kospi flat

Shanghai Composite +0.4%

Hang Seng -0.3%

Mar S&P500 +0.3% at 1,498

Feb gold flat at $1,663/oz

Mar Crude Oil +.01% at $97.56/brl

Notes/Observations

Senate approves debt ceiling suspension legislation; as expected

China Jan Manufacturing PMI softer than expected; HSBC coming in at 2-year high 52.3, improvement from Jan Flash PMI of 51.9 suggesting H2 of Jan improved further; Analysts question the accuracy of weaker print due to timing of Lunar New Year.

RBNZ Gov Wheeler delivers first public address of the year, signals potential shift in policy bias with a meeting on macroprudential policy tools in March; Reiterates concern over housing inflation.

Sharp reports Q3 Op profit as speculated in Japan press; first op profit in 5 quarters; Keeps FY12/13 guidance on cautious outlook for displays.

Nikkei225, S&P/ASX at multi-month highs

EUR/USD above $1.36; USD/JPY above ¥92

Currencies

USD/JPY - broke through 91.50 level, reached 91.86 high, currently consolidating between 91.70-91.80 levels.

AUD/USD - beginning of session rose through 1.0425 levels on back of NZD strength, fell sharply after China PMI disappointed to 1.0412 levels, currently holding above 1.04 handle.

NZD/USD - extended previous session gains on comments by RBNZ Gov Wheeler, reached 0.8439 high, before falling back slightly after China PMI release. Holding above 0.8400 handle.

USD/SGD - Raced past 1.24 levels to a 4-month high.

AUD/NZD - relative NZD strength after RBNZ Gov Wheeler comments combined with AUD weakness after China Manuf PMI sending the cross below Oct 2012 support to NZ$1.2350; Lowest level since Aug 2011.

Fixed Income/Commodities

(AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 2018 Bonds; avg yield: 3.031%, bid-to-cover: 3.67x

(US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Assets Week ending Jan 30th: $2.991T v $2.993T prior; M1: +$15.0B v +$35.5B prior; M2: -$55B v -$26.6B prior

Speakers/Political/In the Papers

(NZ) RBNZ Gov Wheeler: To consult on macroprudential policy tools in March; Sees strong int'l demand for NZ commodity exports

(JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: Currently does not see the need to alter BOJ law; PM Abe may be narrowing the list for BoJ Gov candidates - financial press

(JP) Japan's METI: Sees sequential growth in industrial production extending into January and February - Nikkei News

Equities

Toyota Industries 6201.JP: Reports 9-month Net ¥40.6B v ¥39.8B y/y, Op Profit ¥51.2B v ¥48.6B y/y, Rev ¥1.14T v ¥1.13T y/y

Sharp 6753.JP: Reports 9-month Net loss ¥424B v ¥214B y/y, Op loss ¥166B v gain ¥9.14B y/y, Rev ¥1.78T v ¥1.90T y/y

Panasonic 6752.JP: Reports 9-month Net loss ¥623.8B v loss ¥333.8B y/y, Rev ¥5.44T v ¥5.97T y/y

Denso Corp 6902.JP: Reports 9-month Net ¥130.8B v ¥36.4B y/y, Op Profit ¥188.0B v ¥82.1B y/y, Rev ¥2.57T v ¥2.21T y/y

SNE: Plans to unveil next-gen game console in an announcement on Sunday, 20th Feb - financial press

KTC 030200.KR: Reports Q4 Net KRW93.6B v KRW211B y/y, Op KRW51B v KRW288B y/y, Rev KRW6.20T v KRW6.38T y/y

MCK: Reports Q3 $1.41 adj v $1.63e, R$31.2B v $30.9Be; -1.6% afterhours

VPRT: Reports Q2 $1.02 adj v $0.75e, R$348.3 v $332Me; -1.7% afterhours

WYNN: Reports Q4 $1.17 v $1.26e, R$1.29B v $1.28Be -0.7% afterhours

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