Commodities managed a rally on Friday following the release of “inline” Chinese economic data and a decline in the US dollar. China’s economy grew at 7.6% rate during Q2, compared with the 8.1% rate seen during Q1. A notable decline, but one crucially that had been predicted in consensus estimates by economists, meaning that the dreaded shock of worse-than-expected numbers was avoided. Clutching at straws perhaps, given the generally gloomy economic news still reverberating around the world, traders took this as an excuse to bid up the likes of copper and crude oil – the former in particular extremely sensitive to news from China, given that country’s huge demand for that metal.
Comex gold for August delivery also had its best day of the week on Friday, gaining 1.7% ($26.70) to settle at $1,592/oz. Silver was up 0.8%, while platinum and palladium were up 1.6% and 1.9% respectively. As noted at the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap, the silver price chart looks a little heavier than gold right now – the washout in commodities since mid-last year hurting the white metal more than gold (as would be expected).
A look at the trend in commodities over the last few years suggests that we could be on the cusp of another trending move higher in this sector (given that we’d expect higher highs and higher lows during a bull market). This of course depends on new money printing by the Federal Reserve, something that Bernanke and Co have not yet given the markets. But this chart – hat tip to Trader Dan – gives a good general view of monthly trends in commodities.