NZD/JPY is drifting lower in the “flag” of the bull flag pattern as the pair pivoted (today) off the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the August lows to the October highs. Technicians will be looking at the 79.48 level as the pivot from being bulls versus bearish in the weeks ahead. The pair is facing the RBNZ decision overnight, and if the RBNZ meets expectations and does raise rates, the pair could make a move to the flag resistance at about 81.00.
With USD/JPY back above the 115.00 and holding, this is the risk. However, if the RBNZ does not meet expectations or comes out with a “dovish” hike, the pair could break the 79.50 level and the 50-day moving average, and the pair would invalidate the bull flag pattern setup. Expecting some volatility overnight.