Market movers ahead
We expect focus to be on euro PMI and German ifo next week. After falling for some months, we look for stabilisation in March. The German ZEW should also find a bottom after the increase in market sentiment lately.
In the US, data for home sales and durable goods orders are up before focus turns to ISM manufacturing and payrolls the following week Core PCE inflation is also likely to attract attention following the increase lately.
In China, the next key release is PMI manufacturing, due on 1 April. We look for a slight increase.
Sweden releases business and consumer confidence data in the coming week.
Global macro and market themes
Global central banks have been dovish across the board lately and have provided life support to financial markets.
Risk markets are getting support from a turn in regional US business surveys pointing to a lower probability of US recession.
The risk of a systemic crisis has eased, as the ECB has included corporate bonds in the purchase programme and a dovish Fed is giving support to commodities and emerging markets.
The hunt for yield is set to flatten the euro yield curve.
Central banks have ended the currency war as policy divergence is becoming less.
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