EUR/NOK: We expect EUR/NOK to edge higher in the coming month on more monetary-policy easing being priced in ahead of the Norges Bank decision on 18 June. After the latest significant rise in oil prices we see risks as more symmetrically balanced short term, and thus we do not expect the oil price to be a one-way NOK supportive factor in the near term. We still target EUR/NOK at 8.55 in 1M, 8.40 in 3M (NYSE:MMM), 8.25 in 6M and 8.15 in 12M.
EUR/SEK: Awaiting further stimulus from the Riksbank, we keep our forecast profile intact targeting a weaker krona in the next few months and SEK strength over the 12M horizon. We lift our 1M target to 9.40 (from 9.30).
EUR/DKK: We have revised up our forecasts for EUR/DKK. We now expect EUR/DKK to stay elevated in the near-term at 7.4620 on 1M and 3M before dropping to 7.4550 on 6M and 12M supported by two DN unilateral rate hikes, see FX Edge: Danish rate hike not on the cards until H2 ,13 May 2015.
EUR/USD: In last week's FX Strategy: Deflation deceleration - an early warning for EUR/USD , 7 May 2015, we revised our near-term EUR/USD forecast higher: we still think EUR/USD will bottom in early autumn but now project 1.08 in 3M and 1.02 in 6M, with the possibility of undershooting towards parity. We still maintain a 12M target at 1.08 - a rebound driven by the ECB-Fed disconnect starting to fade.
EUR/GBP: GBP has rallied following the surprise general election result with a Conservative majority government now in place. Looking further ahead, we expect the combination of additional EUR weakness caused by the ECB's 'hot potato effect' coupled with re-pricing of the BoE to keep EUR/GBP under pressure in the coming months targeting 0.71 and 0.69 in 3M and 6M, respectively. In the short term, however, further liquidation of short EUR/USD positions might counter some of the EUR/GBP downside potential. We target EUR/GBP at 0.7300 in 1M.
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