Canadian Employment Surges Again In April

Total employment surged in April (+58.2K) following an astonishing gain of 82.3K jobs in March. Strong gains were observed in full-time jobs (+43.9K) while part-time jobs posted also an increase of 14.3K. The goods-producing sector surged 70K (the best monthly performance on record), following a solid gain of 24.9K the previous month. Within the goods-producing sector, construction (+24.6K) and manufacturing (+23.8K) were the top performers.

The services producing sector retreated this month (-11.8K) after increasing 57.5K the month before. Among services producing sector, educational services (+16.8K) was the top performer while public administration (-32.4K) lagged. At the provincial level, 7 provinces posted increases in employment. Quebec’s (23.3K) experienced the largest gains while Ontario (-7.7K) lagged. The unemployment rate increased to 7.3% from 7.2% a month before due to a notable increase in the participation rate.

Opinion: Canadian employment rose 58.2K in April according to the Labour Force Survey, topping consensus by a mile. This performance is all the more impressive as it follows a gain of 82.3K in March. Such a performance in two months (140.5K) has never been observed since 1981. Moreover, the details of this two months job creation are even better. 81% of those jobs were full-time and 91% are coming from the private sector, important signs of a healthy labour market. As a result, both indicators reached new all-time highs in April (middle chart).

Clearly, this morning report is also indicating a much better picture of goods-producing sector (67.5% of April and March jobs creation). Yet jobs in that sector have not fully recovered losses from the last recession. Based on this recent performance, some may think that the labour market is booming in Canada. A few months ago, the LFS survey was indicating stagnation in jobs at the national level due to an employment collapse in Quebec (bottom chart). Since we were highly skeptical about this drop given other economic indicators, we are also skeptical about the recent surge in that province (43% of last two months gains). At the national level, the reality is probably more of a labour market which continues to progress at its trend since the 2009 through (bottom chart).