The Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM declined 0.2% in November after having been flat in the two previous months. Prices dropped in 8 of the 11 metropolitan areas covered. They were down markedly in Calgary (-1.6%) and Victoria (-0.9%) and moderately in Hamilton (-0.3%), Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Quebec City (-0.2%) and Winnipeg (-0.1%). Prices were up 0.5% in Halifax, 0.4% in Montreal and 0.1% in Edmonton. On a y/y basis, home price inflation was 7.2% in November, a slight acceleration from October. By metropolitan areas, 12-month price changes vary widely: 10.8% in Toronto, 9.1% in Vancouver, 7.5% in Winnipeg, 7.2% in Montreal, 6.0% in Quebec City, 4.4% in Hamilton, 4.2% in Ottawa-Gatineau, 2.8% in Halifax, 1.0% in Hamilton and 0.5% in Calgary.
OPINION: The current period of softness in house prices follows a few months of above-normal increases. This is the same pattern as the one that occurred from April 2010 to November 2010 (middle chart), which ended in a limited price correction. For sure, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, the national existing home market finished 2011 in balanced conditions (bottom chart). Therefore, fears that the current trend will degenerate into a sudden and huge price correction
similar to the one that occurred in the U.S. (top chart) are premature, especially with mortgage rates at their lowest level on record. Given such low rates, we are pleased to see that home sales have increased rather moderately lately, suggesting that households do care about their debt level. In our view, the performance of the Canadian labor market does not herald a protracted period of substantial house price declines.