In Canada, an annual rate of 244.9K housingunits were started in April, up 30.1K or 14% from the rate of 214.8K units in March, and once again topping expectations. Urban starts increased 34.5K or 18.0%to 226.2K. Starts in rural areas decreased 4.4K or37.7% to 18.7K. Urban single family starts edged up 0.4K or 0.6% to 67.7K while multiple starts went up 34.1K or 27.4% to 158.5K. On a regional basis, most of April’s increase in starts occurred in Quebec (+18.3K) and Ontario (+10.3K).
Opinion: April’s jump in housing starts to the highest level since September 2007 (top chart) came as a surprise. Details show that this jump came from a record number of multiple starts in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) after an already high level in March (middle chart) and from a rebound in multiple starts in Montreal CMA after three months of low activity, and a high level of multiple starts elsewhere in Quebec. However, we still believe that supply conditions herald a declining trend in multiple starts in the Montreal CMA for the remainder of 2012.
Even with April’s rebound, cumulative multiple starts since the beginning of the year are only 1.5% higher than the same period last year, so multiple starts in Montreal could indeed end up lower in 2012 than in 2011. The increased activity in Toronto might be a reflection of a high level of pre-sales in large multi-unit projects since 2011. In our view, high prices will contribute to slow down the activity in Toronto, as potential buyers are more and more priced out. In the meantime, April’s jump in starts means that new residential construction could be a contributor to economic growth in Q2.
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Canada: 244.9K Housing Starts In April
Published 05/09/2012, 03:25 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
Canada: 244.9K Housing Starts In April
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