It’s been a good year so far for the momentum factor. That’s hardly surprising given that momentum was red hot in 2024. Momentum, it seems, still has momentum.
Using a set of ETF proxies to track US equity risk factor shows that momentum (MTUM) has extended its strength from last year into 2025.
Year to date, MTUM is up 4.6%, well ahead of US stocks generally and the rest of the factor field, based on data through yesterday’s close (Jan. 29).
Momentum’s strength is conspicuous compared with the broad equity benchmark via SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which is up 2.7% so far this year.
All the major equity factors are posting gains in 2025, but there’s a hefty spread between the leader and laggard. Small-cap value (IJS) is the weakest performer year to date, rising a relatively modest 1.8%.
Note, too, the comparatively soft gain for large-cap growth (IVW), which is ahead 2.2% — the second-lowest advance this year. Large-cap growth has been one of the strongest equity factors in recent history and so its weaker run so far this year will be closely watched by investors in search of clues for thinking that a change in leadership may be unfolding.
For two years running, large-cap growth (IVW) has outperformed the market overall (SPY). The early data this year, however, raises the possibility that IVW’s strong run may be fading as this bucket of shares remains a weak performer in relative terms.
Some analysts in recent history have suggested that small cap stocks are poised to revive after trailing large caps for years. In October, for example, The Capital Spectator posed the question: “Are Reports Of Small-Cap Stocks’ Revival Prospects Premature?”
The answer today depends on the definition of small caps. While small-cap value (IJS) is dead last in this year’s factor horse race to date, small-cap growth (IJT) is showing promise. The ETF is posting the third-strongest gain so far in 2025.