This week the scorecard recommends buying NOK, SEK and CAD while selling EUR, NZD and JPY (see suggested weights in portfolio in table below).
This week’s suggestion of buying NOK and SEK derives from a broad-based set of factors, with last week’s weak performance playing only a smaller role. The short recommendation on EUR is partly due to its decent run last week as well as technical factors. Crucially, the scorecard recommends selling NZD and CAD alike, despite last week’s sell-offs in the two (that is, the mean-reversion argument is overruled by other factors).
Last week’s signals resulted in a 0.3% gain. This was driven primarily by the recommendation to sell NZD and CAD while buying SEK proved a costly affair due to the surprise Riksbank easing move.
Next scorecard signals will be sent out on 13 July.