Buy Cocoa?

Buy 22.50 stop. Protective stop 21.84. Potential projection 23.75.

Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart cocoa is back over the 150 day ma.
2. On the weekly chart cocoa formed a key reversal bottom two weeks ago.
3. On the weekly chart the current wave down exceeded projections - suggesting an oversold market.
4. The macd is positive on all three charts.
5. On the daily chart cocoa formed a key reversal bottom in mid December that is still intact.
6. On the daily chart cocoa rallied over the 20 day ma last Thursday and has held that average on sell-offs.
7. On the daily chart cocoa appears to be attempting a second wave up.
8. A buy signal on the daily chart would trigger a buy on the weekly.
9. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

Sell March sugar.  Sell 23.39 stop.  Protective stop 23.86.  Potential projection 22.00.

Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On the monthly chart sugar violated both the 20 day ma and the uptrend formed since the May 2010 low last month.  It has traded under both that average and the trend line during all of December - holding back rally attempts.
2.  The monthly chart has a key reversal top.
3.  The weekly violated the 100 day ma over a week ago.  Rally attempts have been held back by that average.
4.  The weekly chart is in a downtrend.  The current wave down has not yet met projections.
5.   The daily chart has been in a downtrend since the August high.
6.  On the daily chart, a sell would violate the 20 day ma.
7.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

Sell March mini silver.  Sell 28.490 stop.  Protective stop 29.440.  Potential projection 27.000.

Reasons for the Trade:
1.   The monthly chart is triggering a preliminary sell this month.
2.  On the monthly chart silver violated the 20 day ma this month.  That is negative.
3.  The weekly chart triggered a preliminary sell this week.  That is the third sell signal on the weekly chart.
4.  The macd is negative on all three charts.
5.  On the daily chart silver formed a key reversal top to the recent rally on Dec. 21 - suggesting a trend change from up to down.  It was the same formation that ended the rally that peaked on Dec. 2.
6.  Silver triggered a sell today.

Buy March dollar index. Buy 80.450 stop. Protective stop 79.950. Potential projection 82.500.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart triggered a preliminary buy signal this month.
2. On the monthly chart the dollar is trading above the 20 day ma.
3. The weekly chart has a previous buy that is still intact.
4. On the weekly chart the dollar closed above the 100 & 150 day ma last week. Last week's low tested the 150 day ma and held. That is positive.
5. The daily chart formed a key reversal bottom on Thursday.
6. On the daily chart the recent sell-off held at the uptrend formed since the Oct. 27 low.
7. On the daily chart the recent sell-off held the 20 day ma.
8. On the daily chart the dollar triggered a sell today.  A buy would negate that sell.  Normally when a market does so that quickly it follows through in the new direction.

Sell March mini eurocurrency.  Sell 130.350 stop.  Protective stop 131.100.  Potential projection  127.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.   On the monthly chart the fx triggered a sell this month.
2.   On the monthly chart the fx violated the 100 day ma this month.
3.  The monthly chart has been in a downtrend since the 2008 high.  It appears to be in the process of a third wave down.
4.   On the weekly chart the fx violated the 20, 100 and 150 day ma several weeks ago.  When it did so in 2010 it sold off to 120.000.
5.   On the weekly chart the fx triggered a sell two weeks ago that is still intact.
6.  On the daily chart, the fx formed a key reversal top to the recent rally last week - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
7.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

GRAIN COMMENTS:  

MAR CORN:   It triggered a buy today and closed over the 625 minor resistance.  Today's high was 636 3/4.  Keep stops at 614.  Closed 633 1/4, up 13 3/4.
Position:  Long 627 (12.27).
Projection:  650.

MAR MINI WHEAT:  It cleared resistance around 630 today.  The high was 647.  Between 650 to 660 it will be reaching resistance.  Closed 644 3/4, up 22 3/4.

MAR MINI BEANS:  They reached my projection today so I took profit.  Today's high 1215.  Closed 1209 1/2, up 37.
Position:  Long 1169 1/4 (12.22).  Exit 1206 (12.27).  Profit $312.50 (-comm/fees).

MAR MEAL:  Well I messed that one up!  I tried to buy it more than once last week but gave up because it wasn't doing enough.  It took off today!  The high is 314.00.  Closed 311.70, up 10.90.

MAR BEAN OIL:  Today's rally pushed right into resistance formed in October and November.  It reached to high end of it before stopping.  The key now is to hold over 52.00.  Today's high 52.67.  Closed 52.23, up .86.

MEAT COMMENTS:

FEB HOGS:  The hog report revealed that U.S. hog inventory is up 1.5% year to year.  On the monthly chart hogs are now backing off from the 87.500 resistance and are close to violating the 20 day ma again.  On the weekly they continue to be held back by the 10 day ma.  That has gone on for weeks.  So is there more to the recent rally?  Technically there should be more but the action is not impressive.  Today was also an inside day but I am just going to watch for now.  Closed 85.75, down .10.

FEB CATTLE:  They have triggered a preliminary sell technically on the monthly chart and it is still intact in spite of the rally..  On the weekly they are backing off from resistance and a previous sell is still intact there in spite of the rally last week too.  The daily rallied to resistance and has started to sell off.  Waiting for the right setup to possibly go short.  Closed 123.20, down 1.12.

SOFTS:

MAR COTTON:  The current rally on the daily chart is evolving just as the last one did from the 90.00 level.  It appears tedious and taking forever to get any where.  If this rally can reach 89.00 it will be greeted by the 20 day ma that has ended any rally attempts before on the daily chart.  Not enough going on here to mean much.  Just watching.  Closed 87.91, up .67.

MAR ORANGE JUICE:  In my last report I pointed out that OJ had an inside day, outside day, inside day - all in a row and such technical action usually produces a strong move in any market.  That it did and Friday OJ rallied over the 150 and 20 day ma.  Today it continued to follow through with a high at 170.95.  It is reaching some resistance but, assuming it holds, it should try for 175.50.  The long term technical situation has not changed yet.  Closed 169.95, up 2.65.

MAR COFFEE:  On the daily chart it keeps consolidating between 218.00 up to 223.00 approximately.  It may try for the 225.50 resistance area on the daily chart or even further.  It is too early to tell.  The long term negative situation has not changed.  All the current action suggests is that there might be more to the current attempts to rally.   Closed 222.85, up 3.20.

MAR COCOA:  I tried to buy it today.  The price was not reached.  I'll try again tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 22.16, down .2.

MAR SUGAR:  The long term technical situation for this market is still negative.  We may have seen the rally on the daily chart.  It appears to have lost momentum in spite of some positives technically on the daily chart.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 23.61, up .02.

METALS & ENERGY COMMENTS:

MAR COPPER:  The inside day mentioned last time on the daily chart did trigger a buy.  It seems to have not made any difference in copper's attempt to get over the 20 day ma.  It continues to be held back by it.  Right now copper is in the middle of the range it has formed.  Just watching.  Closed 340.90, down 6.05.

FEB MINI GOLD:  I have tried to short it and finally did today.  Today's low 1591.10.  Keep stops at 1619.00.  Closed 1595.50, down 10.50.

Position:  Short 1598.50 (12.27).
Projection:  1550.00.

MAR MINI SILVER:  In my last Update I pointed out that the rally attempts were not impressive and suggested more sell-off.  That it has done.  Its attempt to get over 30.000 was pathetic.  It triggered a sell today and closed under 29.000.  The long term negatives mount.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 28.740, down .344.

MAR MINI CRUDE OIL:  It succeeded in getting over the 100.000 resistance and, as I stated in my last Update, it could try for the 102.000 level.  Today's high 101.880.  Watching closely.  Closed 101.46, up 1.630.

CURRENCIES & FINANCIALS:

MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN:  I tried to short it Friday.  The lowest it got during the day session was 128.170.  It rallied today and what is important is that it rallied back over the 150 day ma.  It almost reached 129.00 but getting near that resistance started a sell-off.  It is now back under the 20 day ma but is still holding the 150 day ma.  In spite of all this, the sell triggered last Thursday is still intact.  There is contradiction here.  Just watching.  Closed 128.670, up .31.

MAR SWISS FRANC:  Its range has become so narrow it is ridiculous.  The range today was 25 ticks.  That is almost unheard of in a currency.  An inside day on Friday triggered a buy today but there obviously has not been any follow through.  An attempt to get over 108.00 and the 20 day ma last week was greeted with a key reversal top.  Whether it will succeed in getting over that resistance remains to be seen.  There just isn't enough movement to evaluate.  Closed 107.29, up .28.

MAR DOLLAR INDEX:  I keep trying to buy it but the price has not been reached.  The range has been very narrow.   I'll try again tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 80.135, down .101.

MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY:  It persists in having problems getting over 131.000.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 130.830, up 12.

MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR:  It continues to trade into a pennant on the daily chart.  It did succeed in getting over the 20 day ma last week and continues to hold that gain.  It will reach the high end of the pennant around 98.60.  That is also where the 100 day ma intersects as well - creating a double resistance.  Just watching.  Closed 98.05, up 3.

MAR AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR:  It is trading into a pennant as well and should reach the high end of that pennant around 101.40.  That is also where the 150 day ma intersects - adding to the resistance.  It also got over the 20 day ma last week and has held that gain.  Just watching.  Closed 100.83, up 8.

MAR E-MINI S&P:  Not much excitement here.  Today's range was very narrow and it closed exactly where it did on Friday.  It is close to the high end of its resistance that has put a cap on the rallies since late October - that is around 1275.00 to 1280.00.  Just watching.  Closed 1260.25, unchanged.

MAR 10 YR. NOTES:  They violated the 20 day ma on Friday and sold off to the 129.220 support area today.  So far they are holding.  The only change on the long term charts is that on the weekly the notes are struggling to hold at the 20 day ma.  Just looking at the chart they suggest the 128.000 area as that is the low end of the range they have been in on the weekly since August.  Just watching.  Closed 129.305, up .030.