In this video we look at a section of the report, curiously titled "Boring Bears". Specifically, the video walks you through a couple of slides of a recent edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. In the video we talk through a growing list of bearish signals on the US equity market.
The section is wryly titled "boring bears" in reference to the increasing number of bearish signals - several of which have been lighting up for some time now, and may continue to light up as the market pushes on further upwards. At the risk of 'crying wolf' we outline several bearish signals across cyclicals vs defensives, small cap stocks, and volatility. With the basic conclusions being US cyclicals look overvalued and out of time, small caps likewise look richly valued with easing earnings momentum, and volatility is extremely low with the VIX trading below 5 different fundamental models we track. While it could take some time for this much-predicted correction or bear market to show up, it is fair to say the risk/return balance is shifting. Speaking of US equities - check out the new S&P500 #ChartStorm website.