What's next for the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE:TBT) ETF?
With 10-year YIELD trading at 2.19% — a new low for the decline off the March 14 pre-hike high at 2.63% — TBT as a matter of course is also under pressure, making new corrective lows at 36.78 so far.
If we view all of the action off the March 13 high at 42.28 as a corrective down channel and all of the action since March 31 as an "inside" minor down channel, then a press toward a test of both lower channel boundaries points to 36.60, which if violated and sustained, will point lower to 36.00-35.80.
Continued sluggish economic data, the absence of a timetable for tax cuts and infrastructure spending and heightened geopolitical tensions (flight to safety) argue for TBT (YIELD) weakness into the lower channel target zone of 36.00-35.80 prior to my expectation of a major upside technical reversal.
