Market movers ahead
On Wednesday, we expect the Fed to maintain the target range at 0.25-0.50% in line with both consensus and market pricing.
We expect the BoJ to cut its policy rate by 20bp to -0.3% and scale up its qualitative easing measures.
Preliminary PMI figures for the euro area released tomorrow will probably show a continuation of the recent downward trend.
We are looking for euro-area Q1 GDP growth of 0.3% q/q and US Q1 GDP growth of 0.7% q/q AR.
We expect PCE core rose 0.1% m/m in March, implying a fall in the core inflation rate to 1.5% from 1.7%.
Global macro and market themes
The emerging market rally has further to go on the Fed, China and balances.
The oil recovery is the result of expectations of improving demand, not a supply freeze.
The BoJ is set to ease next week but helicopter money may be the end game.
The ECB remains sidelined in the currency war but EUR/USD should still fall into the UK's EU referendum.
Emerging market currencies and equities set to outperform developed markets.
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