Behind financial systems, world reserve currency and petrodollar arrangements, the United States’ air superiority is the backbone of its geopolitical hegemony. And patient Boeing (NYSE: NYSE:BA) shareholders just got a major boost for their conviction.
Namely, Boeing will ensure continued projection of American power on the world’s stage with the 6th generation advanced fighter jet. By awarding the military contract to Boeing, President Trump secured the company with billions of taxpayer inflows.
Dubbed F-47, after President Trump’s 47th presidency, the stealth aircraft will eventually replace Lockheed Martin’s F-22.
“There’s never been anything even close to it, from speed to maneuverability, to what it can have, to payload,”
President Trump at the White House on Friday
But is this the right time for BA stock exposure?
F-47: Unexpected Turnaround for Boeing
Originating from DARPA’s Air Dominance Initiative study, the Pentagon launched Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) initiative in 2014 to develop 6th-gen fighter aircraft. Although many thought that air superiority would rely purely on drones in the near future, the F-47 appears to be a stepping stone in that direction.
Still crewed, the aircraft will complement uncrewed collaborative combat aircraft (CCA). This manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) is clearly designed as a force multiplier in which the human pilot expands his options. In other words, drones such as Kratos XQ-58 Valkyrie will link up with F-47 as sensing, decoy, and kill platforms.
This capability was already tested with existing 5th-gen F-35s last year at Eglin Air Force Base under the Penetrating Affordable Autonomous Collaborative Killer-Portfolio (PAACK-P) program. In turn, this should significantly reduce the risk for pilots who are exceedingly difficult and expensive to train.
Only three companies competed to develop the F-47; Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), Boeing (BA) and Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC). The latter withdrew in 2023 as the prime contractor. Both Boeing and Lockheed Martin have been building F-47 precursors as X-planes within the NGAD initiative.
“For the past five years, the X-planes for this aircraft have been quietly laying the foundation for the F-47 — flying hundreds of hours, testing cutting-edge concepts, and proving that we can push the envelope of technology with confidence.”
David Allvin, Chief of Staff of USAF on March 21st, 2025
According to General Allvin, the F-47 will not only be cheaper than the F-22, but more easily maintained and supported. This translates to greater inventory. In the intermediate future, Boeing should receive at least $20 billion for the initial development stage.
To develop the F-22, Lockheed Martin spent around $32 billion, of the total $67.3 billion program cost, with each plane costing ~$360 million. The Government Accountability Office (GOA) projected that Lockheed Martin’s cheaper and export-friendly F-35 will end up costing taxpayers over $2 trillion.
It is likely that multiple F-35 cost increases and update delays made Boeing favorable over Lockheed Martin for the F-47. And if it is the case that the F-47 will become a new standard for USAF, Boeing should receive hundreds of billions in long-term procurement.
Is Boeing Up to the Task?
In the last couple of years, Boeing has come under public spotlight due to virally spread aviation incidents across social media. However, there doesn’t seem to be a notable increase in both fatal and non-fatal aviation accidents, according to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB).
Unfortunately, as Boeing actively tracked how many employees were hired by displacing people of European descent and male gender, such concerns grew. But even before President Trump was inaugurated, and started implementing an anti-DEI sweep, Boeing had already disbanded its DEI department in early November.
Specifically, the company noted a shift to “a merit-based performance system with procedures aimed at encouraging an equality of opportunity, not of outcomes.”
When looking at Boeing’s previous novel projects, such as Starliner, the company failed to instill shareholder confidence. Initially budgeted at $4.2 billion, its cost increased by at least $2 billion, in addition to suffering delays and technical issues. This culminated in Boeing’s failure to extract stranded astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams from the International Space Station (ISS).
Eventually, after 9 months, SpaceX’ Crew Dragon took the lead at the behest of NASA and returned them safely. For comparison, NASA granted SpaceX only $2.6 billion to develop Crew Dragon.
On the commercial jetliner front, Boeing is busy developing the long-range 777X, aimed at replacing 747 and competing with Airbus A350-1000. Although it is purportedly 10-20% more efficient than competition, it too suffered multiple delays and manufacturing issues.
Nonetheless, the demand already for the 777X appears to be strong. Most recently, Korean Air finalized a $24.9 billion deal for 40 new Boeing planes for delivery by 2033, with an option for 10 more.
The Bottom Line
The complexity of the aerospace sector serves as a filtering mechanism to only churn out a few companies relevant for each niche. Case in point, even though Intuitive Machines Inc (NASDAQ:LUNR) Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) fumbled the last Moon landing, it is still the primary lunar exploration exposure.
Now that Boeing secured the milestone contract for US air superiority, for the foreseeable future, it is even more important to view Boeing as a critical geostrategic asset. And just as Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is not likely to be allowed to fail, the same goes for Boeing.
Boeing’s history points to many delays and exceeded costs, but the company removed the DEI imposition moving forward. With Palantir (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PLTR) in play for streamlined efficiency within the military-industrial complex, Boeing may even surprise investors.
Presently, BA stock is priced at $182.35, up 6% year-to-date. Over a one-year period, BA stock is down 4.7%, with its 52-week low point of $137 per share. Per WSJ forecasting data, the average BA price target is $197.73. The low estimate is $113 while the price ceiling for BA stock is $228 per share.
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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our website policy prior to making financial decisions.
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