Market Movers ahead
Sandwiched as it is between two weeks with key interest rate decisions at the ECB and the Fed, the coming week seems unlikely to make history. That said , there are a number of important events on the agenda. In the UK, the BoE meets on Thursday. While we do not expect any rate changes, signals from the bank will be closely monitored for a first indication of whether it will hike in February as we predict.
In Europe, the spotlight will move away from the ECB and onto a myriad of economic data. Most important is the Sentix investor sentiment index, and we expect a further improvement in December.
China will also attract some attention during the week with the release of figures for its currency reserves, where we expect a decrease, and exports, where we hope to see some improvement.
Global macro and market themes
The ECB disappointed this week by delivering a rather 'light' menu of easing measures.
We nevertheless think that this marks the end of ECB easing as the euro recovery gains traction in 2016.
Front end of EUR curve repriced and now well-anchored with ECB easing done.
EUR/USD downside from the Fed near term but we still project a rebound in 2016.
Scandi central banks on hold as the currency war may be drawing to a close.
Oil prices consolidate near term but recovery in 2016 as non-OPEC supply cuts seen..
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