Bitcoin Rises Towards $90k As Volatility Reigns

• BTC recovers from 81k to 88k, up 6% in 24 hrs

• BTC ETFs continue to see outflows, but open interest tumbles

• Optimism trad tariff rea negotiating tool lifts the market mood

• Key risk events still to come include the White Houe Crypto Summit & US NFPs

Bitcoin has recovered from yesterday’s 81.4k low, rising above 88k at the time of writing. BTC has risen 5% over the past 24 hours as dip buyers step in and as recent volatility shows few signs of abating.

Bitcoin ETFs have continued to experience outflows this week. According to SoSoValue data, total outflows across Monday and Tuesday were $217 million, significantly lower than last week’s $2.6 billion but still indicating weak institutional demand. Should ETF outflows continue, Bitcoin could fall further.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Open Interest has tumbled 14.4%, signaling a decline in speculative activity among trades. This is not surprising given the elevated levels of liquidations in recent sessions. Historically, a sharp drop in open interest has been associated with a market reset.

Trump-Inspired Volatility

The world's largest cryptocurrency has seen wild swings this week as President Trump's promise of a crypto strategic reserve spurred a sharp rebound from last week's sub-80k low. However, the rebound proved to be short-lived amid a lack of details for the reserve plans and as trade tariff fears quickly overshadowed the news.

Trump applied 25% trade tariffs on Mexico and Canada and a further 10% levy on China, sparking a risk-off mood on Tuesday. Those fears eased on Wednesday following comments from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, which fueled optimism that the trade tariffs may be a negotiating tool, once again reviving appetite for risk assets. U.S. stocks, which have fallen sharply in previous sessions, are also set for a stronger open.

Adding to the positive news, Metaplanet, the Japanese investment firm announced a purchase of 497 BTC worth $44 million, which resulted in an 18% rally in its share price. The company now holds 2888 Bitcoin worth $251.18 million.

Moreover, dip buyers appearing around the 80k level and BTC holding above its 200 SMA are encouraging signs. However, several key events this week could drive heightened volatility.

Key Events Still To Come

1. White House Crypto Summit

The first White House Crypto Summit on Friday, hosted by President Trump and chaired by Crypto Czar David Sacks, could be a turning point for US policy. Key industry leaders are expected to attend the summit, which aims to discuss regulation and innovation in the sector. Trump’s recent reference to a US strategic crypto reserve could also drive conversations in that direction. The event could bring regulatory updates or policy announcements that impact market sentiment.

2. US data - NFPs

US economic data points will also be in focus across the second half of this week. US ISM services PMI and ADP payrolls will be released today, ahead of the non-farm payroll report on Friday. Recent business and consumer confidence has fallen sharply on concerns that Trump’s trade tariffs could cause an economic downturn. Data will be watched closely, and signs of weakness could prompt further declines.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

After facing rejection at 95k on Sunday, BTC dropped 8% to 81.4K, before recovering higher above the 200 SMA. The long lower wick on the candle suggests limited selling demand at the lower level. Should the price remain above the 200 SMA and 85k, buyers could extend the recovery to retest 95k. The RSI pushing above 50 would act as a tailwind.

However, a break below 85k could see a retest of the 200 SMA and 81k, yesterday’s low. Below here 78k comes back into focus.