Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading near $97,300 as of December 2, expected to test the psychological milestone of $100,000. The past week saw increased volatility, with BTC fluctuating between $90,791 and $98,871, driven by profit-taking, geopolitical uncertainties, and significant macroeconomic announcements.
Market Volatility and Recent Performance
Last week began with BTC dipping 4.99% to $93,010 on November 25 after a failed attempt to surpass $100,000 — profit-taking among traders and hawkish Federal Reserve minutes fueled the decline. The situation worsened on November 26 as long-term holders sold over 507,000 BTC, leading to another 1.12% drop to $91,965.
However, recovery began midweek, with BTC climbing 4.24% to $95,863 on November 27. This rebound was buoyed by increased global interest in Bitcoin, evidenced by record-high Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) search trends and bullish news, including Morocco's pro-crypto regulation and a $50 million BTC investment announcement by China's SOS Limited.
BTC closed the week strong, reaching $97,460 on November 29, with analysts highlighting the cryptocurrency's "bullish" technical structure. A significant resistance zone remains at $97,700–$97,800, with overcoming this hurdle seen as critical for a potential push to six figures.
Key Drivers of Bitcoin's Momentum
Bitcoin's current strength reflects both market-specific and macroeconomic factors. Experts highlight several pivotal contributors:
Institutional Adoption and ETF Momentum
Recent positive inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have underscored growing institutional interest. Tether's issuance of $14 billion in new Tether tokens has also bolstered market liquidity.
Regulatory and Political Tailwinds
Expectations of a crypto-friendly stance under a potential Trump administration and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have injected optimism into the market. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction in December stands at 66%, as noted in recent Fed minutes.
Long-Term Investment Potential
Bitcoin continues to transition from a speculative asset to a hedge against inflation and a strategic reserve for institutions. The narrative of BTC as a long-term store of value is gaining traction amid declining volatility and broader market acceptance.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the optimism, BTC faces psychological and technical resistance at $100,000. Traders holding short positions at this level could create significant market liquidity, making upward movement challenging. The week ahead will test Bitcoin’s resilience, with events such as the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and US employment data release set to influence sentiment.
Analysts’ Perspectives
Prominent analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Rekt Capital, a well-known trader, pointed out the successful retest of $91,000 support as a foundation for further growth. A daily close above $97,450, he notes, could spark another rally attempt. Similarly, Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments suggests the current phase resembles early cycles of parabolic growth, offering "unprecedented opportunities for long positions.
On-Chain Indicators and Market Health
On-chain metrics also provide encouraging signals. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator recently formed a "golden cross," historically a precursor to significant price appreciation. Unlike the overheated funding rates of the 2021 bull run, current metrics suggest a more balanced and sustainable growth environment.
Looking Ahead
In the week from December 2 to December 8, investors should pay attention to key events: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech and the release of the Beige Book on December 4, and the release of non-farm payrolls data on December 6, which could significantly impact market sentiment.