Banking union is expected to top the agenda at today's euro group finance minister meeting, where an agreement on a single resolution mechanism for failing banks remains the main stumbling block. It is the goal to have a final agreement before year-end but the finance ministers are not expected to be able to close a deal this week, so they will probably schedule an extraordinary euro group/ecofin meeting for next week. Greece's and Cyprus's bailout programmes should also to be discussed but disbursement of the delayed aid-tranche for Greece is not expected to be approved.
In the data calendar the main releases are October industrial production in Germany, and Sentix investor confidence for the euro area in December. German manufacturing surveys have been strong, so we expect industrial production to rebound in October on the back of a decline in September.
Today will be the last chance for FOMC-members to express their opinion in public before the members tomorrow go into the blackout period ahead of the 17-18 December meeting, where we now expect Fed to start tapering. Lacker (non-voter, hawk) Bullard (voter, dove) and Fischer (non-voter, hawk) are scheduled to speak.
We expect the Danish current account surplus to fall slightly
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