Market movers ahead
We expect US non-farm payrolls to have increased to 150,000 in June and to mark a clear rebound from the worst jobs report in five years in May.
The market will scrutinise the FOMC minutes from the June meeting for any hints as to how the Fed will respond to a Brexit vote.
China will publish FX reserve data next week, which will be interesting in light of the gradual CNY weakening over the past couple of months with no sign of intervention.
We do not expect any new monetary policy action but the Riksbank should revise its GDP-forecast down somewhat in the wake of Brexit.
The Danish FX reserve figures for June will reveal if Danmarks Nationalbank needed to sell additional DKK in FX intervention to cap EUR/DKK downside.
Global macro and market themes
Prolonged uncertainty from drawn-out Brexit negotiations between the UK and Europe. European growth will suffer, EM outside Europe will continue to perform well.
Due to central bank actions yields are set to stay lower for longer.
Bearish outlook for GBP over the next six months, while safe-haven currencies are set to perform strongly.
European equity to underperform US.
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