Australia 200 for Thursday, January 15, 2015
The last few days has seen the Australia 200 Index ease back again under the 5400 level after making numerous attempts to clear it over the last month, which has seen it drop to a three week low below 5300. The short-term resistance level at 5500 continues to loom large and is placing selling pressure on the index as well as battling with resistance at 5400 too. Throughout most of November and December, the Australia 200 Index fell steadily lower down towards support around 5150 and two month lows before rallying back above 5400 again. Over the last few weeks the Australia 200 index has struggled with resistance at 5400 which has forced it lower time and time again. The 5400 level has been a major player for the last 12 months and the index must get back above this level to encourage more buying and bullish sentiment.
It enjoyed a solid resurgence throughout October after getting much needed support from the 5200 level, which has resulted in it moving back above the 5400 and 5500 levels, around a two month high. Throughout most of September the Australia 200 Index declined strongly from its multi-year high after running into resistance around 5650 back to enter its previously established trading range between 5400 and 5500, before falling further below 5200 and to an eight month low around 5120 a few weeks ago. Several weeks ago it received solid support from the 5100 level which saw it rally well to close out a couple of weeks ago.
Back in early September the 5400 level was called upon to offer support as the index desperately tried to stay in touch with its range, however it fell through there before rallying strongly back up to 5400. Up until recently, the 5400 level had done well and propped up price to keep it within the range. In its recent fall at the beginning of August it moved down to a three week low around 5375, however it received solid support at the 5400 level which has allowed to consolidate and rally higher.
Job vacancies in Australia rebounded in the three months to November to hit their highest in two years, pointing to improving demand for labour. Wednesday’s data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed total job vacancies rose 2.6 percent in the November quarter, following a fall of 0.4 percent the previous quarter. Vacancies of 150,400 were up 8 percent on the same quarter of 2013. Vacancies in the private sector rose 2.8 percent in the November quarter, from the previous quarter, to stand at 137,900. Public sector vacancies were unchanged at an historically low 12,500 having been hit by belt tightening by both Federal and state governments. Analysts value the vacancies series as it has proved a reliable leading indicator of labour demand and turning points in employment. The pick up in vacancies should also help offset softness seen in some of the monthly indicators of job advertisements.
Australia 200 January 14 at 22:40 GMT 5299 H: 5391 L: 5272
Australia 200 Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 5150 | 5100 | — | 5400 | 5650 | — |
During the hours of the Asian trading session on Thursday, the Australia 200 Index will be trying to reverse and rally back above the key 5400 level again.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 5150 and 5100.
• Above: 5400 and 5650.
Economic Releases
- 00:01 UK RICS House Price Balance (Dec)
- 00:30 AU Unemployment (Dec)
- 10:00 EU Trade Balance (sa) (Nov)
- 13:30 US Empire State Survey (Jan)
- 13:30 US Initial Claims (10/01/2014)
- 13:30 US PPI (Dec)
- 15:00 US Philidelphia Fed Survey (Jan)
- WLD OPEC release monthly oil market report