Australia 200 for Friday, February 13, 2015
In the last few weeks the Australian 200 index has done very well and surged higher to move back above the key 5400 level to reach a new six-year high just above 5800 in the last week. Since that time however it has spent the last week or so battling with resistance at the key 5800 level which has fended off the index, resulting in it easing back a little. It continues to tease the 5800 level and looks poised to break higher. A few weeks ago saw the resistance at 5500 stand tall and fend off all advances, however this now been broken strongly through. The recent move higher from below 5300 to above the key level of 5400 is important as it desperately tries to hang on to this important trading range for the index above 5400. In the week prior, the Australia 200 Index eased back again under the 5400 level after making numerous attempts to clear it over the last month, which saw it drop to a three week low below 5250 before its recent surge higher.
The moderate support from around the 5300 level held it up well for a a couple weeks before the surge higher. The short-term resistance level at 5500 has returned and now resumes its role of placing selling pressure on the index. Throughout most of November and December, the Australia 200 Index fell steadily lower down towards support around 5150 and two month lows before rallying back above 5400 again. Over the last few weeks the Australia 200 index has struggled with resistance at 5400 which has forced it lower time and time again. The 5400 level has been a major player for the last 12 months and the index must get back above this level to encourage more buying and bullish sentiment. It enjoyed a solid resurgence throughout October after getting much needed support from the 5200 level, which has resulted in it moving back above the 5400 and 5500 levels, around a two month high.
Throughout most of September the Australia 200 Index declined strongly from its multi-year high after running into resistance around 5650 back to enter its previously established trading range between 5400 and 5500, before falling further below 5200 and to an eight-month low around 5120 a few weeks ago. Several weeks ago it received solid support from the 5100 level which saw it rally well to close out a couple of weeks ago. Back in early September the 5400 level was called upon to offer support as the index desperately tried to stay in touch with its range, however it fell through there before rallying strongly back up to 5400. Up until recently, the 5400 level had done well and propped up price to keep it within the range. In its recent fall at the beginning of August it moved down to a three week low around 5375, however it received solid support at the 5400 level which has allowed to consolidate and rally higher.
Australia’s economy unexpectedly lost jobs in January, data showed on Thursday, while jobless rate spiked to a 10-year high. The number of people employed shrank 12,200 in the month, according to figures from the Australia Bureau of Statistics, versus a Reuters poll expecting an addition of 5,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.4 percent, much higher than the 6.2 percent expected print. The data will add to the case of further monetary easing. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates last week for the first time since August 2013 by a quarter point to a fresh record low of 2.25 percent. The debt market now implies a 60 percent probability of a rate cut in March, and over 90 percent for April, Reuters reported. It even moved to price in a sizeable chance rates would hit 1.75 percent late this year.
Australia 200 February 12 at 22:35 GMT 5766 H: 5777 L: 5702
Australia 200 Technicals
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 5400 | 5150 | 5100 | 5800 | — | — |
During the hours of the Asian trading session on Friday, the Australia 200 Index will be looking to make another run at the resistance level at 5800.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 5400, 5150 and 5100.
• Above: 5800.
Economic Releases
- 09:30 UK Construction Output (sa) (Dec)
- 10:00 EU GDP (1st Est.) (Q4)
- 10:00 EU Trade Balance (sa) (Dec)
- 13:30 CA Manufacturing sales (Dec)
- 13:30 US Import Price Index (Jan)
- 15:00 US Univ of Mich Sent. (Prelim.) (Feb)