Aussie Steady After RBA, Moody's Downgraded Japan

Published 12/02/2014, 02:12 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
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Aussie is steady in range after RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 2.50% as widely expected. The central bank reiterated in the statement that "the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates." Other parts of the statement were generally unchanged from the prior one. RBA noted that the economy will continue with with moderate growth. Spare capacity in the labor market will limit wage growth over the period ahead and keep inflation consistent with target. Aussie's exchange is seen as above fundamental value in spite of recent deprecation. Globally, RBA saw weakness in Eurozone and Japan economy and the difference in monetary policies of major central banks would affect exchange rate markets.

Moody's downgraded Japan's government debt rating by one notch from A1 to Aa23. The rating agency said that the key drivers of the decision were "heightened uncertainty over the achievability of fiscal deficit reduction goals", "uncertainty over the timing and effectiveness of growth enhancing policy measures, against a background of deflationary pressures", and "increased risk of rising JGB yields and reduced debt affordability over the medium term." Meanwhile, it said the rating action does not affect the Aaa foreign currency rating.

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said "the lower inflation that we'll get from the lower price of oil is going to be temporary". Also, he's not worried about period of "negative, low inflation" as it's a "phenomenon that's making everybody better off." And, that would "likely to increase GDP rather than reduce it". New York Fed President William Dudley said that it's still "premature" to start to hike rates and "when interest rates are at the zero lower bound, the risks of tightening a bit too early are likely to be considerably greater than the risks of tightening a bit too late."

On the data front, Japan monetary base rose 36.7% yoy in November versus expectation of 37.2%. Australia building approvals rose 11.4% mom in October, current account deficit narrowed to AUD -12.5b in Q3. Looking ahead, UK will release construction PMI, Eurozone will release PPI. Meanwhile, US will release construction spending.

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