Aussie Soft As RBA Maintained Neutral Stance

Published 11/04/2014, 02:40 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM

Aussie remains soft in tight range close to near term support of 0.8642 against dollar. RBA kept cash rate unchanged at 2.50 as widely expected. Also, the central bank maintained the neutral stance and kept the language that "the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates." The accompanying statement is largely unchanged from the prior one. Also released from Australia, trade deficit widened to AUD -2.26b in September versus expectation of AUD -1.78b. Exports dropped for the second straight month, by -3.7% yoy while imports rose 2.5% yoy. Indeed, exports were down annually in four of the last five months. Retail sales rose more than expected by 1.2% mom in September.

Nikkei surges sharply again today as Japan is back from holiday. At the time of writing, the index is up 4% and breaks 17000 handle for the first time since October 2007. The markets are still riding on BoJ's unexpected, massive stimulus announced last week. The decision was made with a tight 5-4 vote and there reports that it showed BoJ governor Haurhiko Kuroda was facing increasing opposition within the board. However, it's believed that the vote split was more on the timing on the stimulus only, not on the decision, nor the scale. USD/JPY reached as high as 114.20 hit a near term projection level. GBP/JPY took out 180.70 resistance this week and resumed larger up trend from 116.83. EUR/JPY also rose strongly but lagged behind others and is trading far below 145.68 resistance for the moment.

In Canada, BoC governor Stephen Poloz said that the economy still needs monetary stimulus to counter the "headwinds" in the global economy. And, higher rates would hurt industries and confidence in the wider economy. Thus, raising interest rates to tackle imbalances like containing the strong housing markets would be "an unattractive alternative". Regarding the economy, Poloz noted that "the consequences of an upside risk would be more manageable than those associated with a downside risk."

Looking ahead, Eurozone will release PPI today. Canada will release trade balance. US will release trade balance and factory orders.

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