Aussie jumps today as RBA held Cash Rate unchanged at 1.75% as widely expected by turned into a neutral stance. The central bank noted in the statement that 'taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy at its May meeting, the board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and inflation returning to target over time'. Note that in May, the central bank indicated that 'continued low inflation would provide scope for easier policy'. Such reference was removed in the June statement. Renewed strength in the property market has been concerning RBA, making it reluctant to ease further. More in RBA Left Cash Rate Unchanged, Removed Language of Further Easing.
In US, Fed chair Janet Yellen remained optimistic on the economy and noted that "I see good reasons to expect that the positive forces supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones." While last week's non-farm payroll report was "disappointing" Yellen emphasized that Fed will respond "only to the extent that we determine or come to the view that the data is meaningful in terms of changing our view of the medium- and longer-term economic outlook." And still, "further gradual increases in the federal funds rate are likely to be appropriate." Currently, fed fund futures are pricing in 4% chance of June hike and 27% chance of July hike. Similar to the pricing a month ago before all the hawkish rhetorics.
Sterling rebounded strongly in reactions to another Brexit poll result. Latest YouGov poll 43% supported "remain" and 42% supported "leave". Another Daily Telegraph poll by ORB showed 48% supported remain and 47% supported "leave". Recent poll results showed that the race is very tight for the EU referendum on June 23. And Sterling will stay volatile to the poll results.
One the data front, UK BRC retail sales monitor rose 0.5% yoy in May. Japan leading indicator rose to 100.5 in April. German industrial production rose 0.8% mom in April. Swiss foreign currency reserves rose to CHF 602b in May. Eurozone Q1 GDP final, US non-farm productivity and Canada Ivey PMI will be released.