Aussie recovered today after RBA left interest rate unchanged a acknowledged improved outlook. The cash rate was held unchanged at 2.00%. The central bank appeared less concerned over the global developments. As noted in the accompanying statement, the global economy 'is expanding at a moderate pace' and 'volatility in financial markets has abated somewhat for the moment'. It also remained aware of the Fed's potential tightening of monetary policy sometime in the future. Domestically, policymakers acknowledged 'moderate expansion' continued and business surveys suggested a 'gradual improvement in conditions over the past year'. Inflation was still low and should 'remain so, with the economy likely to have a degree of spare capacity for some time yet'. Policymakers forecast that inflation should 'be consistent with the target over the next one to two years, but a little lower than earlier expected'. More in RBA: Improved Outlook Warranted Unchanged Policy, Soft Inflation Leaves Room For Cut.
In US, 10 year yield jumped to a five week high to close at 2.187% as some traders are betting on a December rate hike by Fed. Fed fund futures continue to point to around 50% chance of December hike. However, it's far from being certain and Fed's decision will remain very much data dependent. In particular, employment data would be closely watched for evidence that recent slowdown in hiring growth was just temporary. However, based on yesterday's ISM manufacturing data, there is some chance of further slowdown in employment growth. The employment component of ISM manufacturing dropped to 47.6 in October, down from September's 50.5. That the first contraction reading since April.
Elsewhere, the economic calendar is rather light today with focus on UK PMI construction and US factory orders.