Aussie stays firm and maintains this week's gain after RBA left cash rate unchanged at 1.50% as widely expected. The accompanying statement is like a carbon copy of the prior one, when RBA cut rate in August. No new information is revealed. The central bank also maintained a neutral stance and noted that "taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy at its May and August meetings, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time." Also from Australia, current account deficit widened to AUD -15.5b in Q2, smaller than expectation of AUD -20.2b.
Euro is one of the weakest major currency this week ahead of ECB policy decision. Expectations are divided on whether the central bank will announce additional stimulus. But at least, policymakers would review the bond-buy options and possibly tweak the program. In particular, that's due to talk of a scarcity of eligible bonds for purchases. The asset purchase program hit EUR 1T market last week after 18 months in operation. Over the weekend, ECB executive board member Yves Mersch warned that using "extreme measures" could have "unacceptable side effects" that shore of the region's weak economy.
In a former BoJ policymaker Sayuri Shirai, and former IMF economist, said that in case that's necessary, BoJ could choose to deepen negative interest rates rather than expanding bond purchase. In particular, Shirai noted that purchase of foreign bonds would have an impact on the currency market and that would be difficult under the current G20 framework. Meanwhile, she also noted that "given the BOJ has been committed to doing additional monetary easing in case the path toward 2 percent inflation is questioned, it's hard to think how the central bank can get away with not easing this month." BoJ will meet later this month on September 20/21 and a comprehensive assessment of the policy framework will be reviewed.
Looking ahead, Swiss will release Q2 GDP and CPI in European session. Germany will release factory orders. Eurozone will release retail PMI and GDP revision. In US session, ISM non-manufacturing composite is the main focus.