The dollar weakened mildly after the FOMC minutes released overnight. But it's staying in familiar range so far as there was no decisive momentum for a breakout yet. The FOMC minutes for the June meeting was non-eventful with policymakers giving little guidance on the expected timing of any rate hike cycle. It was revealed in the minutes that the Fed would make a US$15B final reduction at its October meeting. Yet, the conclusion of the program has nothing to do with the timing of the first rate hike. The Fed reiterated that the policy rate would remain near zero for a "considerable time". The general economic outlook of the Committee was more or less the same as that in March. Despite the downward revision to 2014 growth outlook, most members did that to reflect the weak GDP report in 1Q14. They mainly kept the remainder of their forward-looking estimates unchanged. More in Fed To End Tapering In October, No Hints On First Rate Hike.
The BoE rate decision will be a main focus today. While it is widely anticipated that the BOE would leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% in July, the economic backdrop has become more encouraging for a rate hike. Strong PMI in June signaled that GDP growth in 2Q14 might have reached +1%, up from +0.8% in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, the employment market has remained upbeat with the headline ILO-harmonized unemployment rate falling to 6.6% in the 3 months through April from 6.8% previously. The Claimant unemployment rate also dropped to 3.2% in May, the lowest since October 2008. Yet, after going through the stubbornly-high inflation period, UK's inflation outlook has remained benign in the near-term. Indeed, subdued producer price pressures, weakness in food prices, strong currency, and restrained earnings growth are expected to constrain inflation to below the BOE's target this year and next. This has complicated the central bank monetary policy stance. While low inflation pressure has allowed policymakers more rooms to not tightening immediately, stronger-than-expected economic recovery has raised expectations for rate hike. We expect the BOE to begin tightening before the end of the year. More in Benign Inflation Dragging The Feet Of BOE.
On the data front, the AUD/USD was lifted briefly by employment data which showed 15.9 growth in June versus expectation of 12.0k. Unemployment rate, however, rose more than expected to 6.0%. New Zealand business NZ manufacturing index improved to 53.3 in June. Japan domestic FCPI rose 0.2% mom in June, tertiary industry index rose 0.9% mom in May, machine orders dropped -19.5% mom. UK RICS house price index dropped to 53 in June. Looking ahead, ECB will release monthly bulletin, UK will release trade balance, Canada will release new housing price index, US will release jobless claims.