Aussie jumps in Asian session as stronger than expected consumer inflation readings lower the chance of further rate cut by RBA. Headline CPI rose to 0.7% qoq and 1.3% yoy in Q3, up from 0.4% qoq and 1.0% yoy in Q2 and beat expectation of 0.5% qoq, 1.1% yoy. The RBA trimmed mean CPI rose 0.4% qoq and 1.7% yoy, compare to Q2's 0.5% qoq, 1.7% yoy, in line with consensus. RBA weighted median CPI, though, dropped to 0.3% qoq and 1.3% yoy down from 0.5% qoq and 1.5% yoy, and missed expectation of 0.4% qoq 1.4% yoy. Some economists noted that the inflation outlook will likely keep RBA on hold through to the early part of 2017 even though an easing bias is maintained. The bigger concern for the central bank is that whether the appreciation of Aussie since June would offset some of the inflationary effects.
In US, San Francisco Fed John Williams said that December would be a right timing for rate hike as there are "some advantages" around a press conference. And, "there is always the issue of wanting to communicate [the rate action] as effectively as we can." And he referred to the last rate hike in December 2015 and noted that "it was helpful last year to have our first rate hike be at a time when the chair could explain the reasoning, the logic and the plans at a press conference." Looking ahead, he said that Fed need to "keep moving on raising interest rates faster than one increase a year" if inflation continues to move up towards Fed's target while unemployment rate drops to around 4.75%. But, " given the economic environment we face…We can raise them very gradually over the next couple of years."
BoE governor Mark Carney said in testimony to parliament yesterday that the inflation and financial stability goals of the central bank have "stood the test of time". Policy markets will weigh recent data before the monetary policy decisions on November 3. But markets have little expectation on any moves by BoE given better than expected Q3 economic performance. Meanwhile, he noted that it would be "highly desirable from a global financial stability and efficiency perspective" to have a deal on financial sector in the Brexit negotiations.
Elsewhere, Germany will release import price index and Gfk consumer confidence today. UK will release BBA mortgage approvals. US will release wholesale inventories and new home sales.