Key Points:
- Ascending triangle continues to exert its influence.
- Strong support should encourage a reversal.
- Could move as high as the 0.7759 mark.
The Aussie dollar is likely about to experience another sharp reversal as it continues to complete its long-term consolidation phase. More specifically, the prior session’s rather dramatic plunge has brought the pair into conflict with the downside constraint of the ascending triangle and, as a result, the AUD bulls should have the signal they need to wade back into the fray.
However, before looking at the potential rally, the nearing completion of the triangle makes it worth taking a look at some other technicals to ensure that the recent bearishness is not a precursor to a breakout.
Firstly, as is shown below, the recent tumble has not only brought the AUD into conflict with the downside constraint of the triangle, but also with the 100 day EMA. As a result of this, dynamic support will be in play once again which should help to prevent any downside breakouts from occurring.
Additionally, support around this point is currently being reinforced by the presence of the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Due to its presence, the bears will have a fairly uphill battle on their hands if they attempt to push the Aussie dollar any lower.
As the chances of a near-term breakout seem to be fairly slim, the question remains, where exactly can we expect to see the Aussie dollar travel to. Given the slight bullish bias of the EMA configuration, it might at first seem that any upsides would be relatively moderate.
However, this is unlikely to be the case as the rather steep incline of the triangle’s lower boundary should encourage a strong uptrend moving forward. As a result, the pair should end up somewhere between the 0.7689 and 0.7759 levels within the next week or so.
On the fundamental front, the RBA’s decision on the Cash Rate has the potential to significantly disrupt the near-term forecast for the AUD. Whilst currently expected to be held steady at the 1.5% mark, any surprise cuts to interest rates could spark a premature breakout if the Aussie dollar has failed to distance itself from the downside of the triangle. As a result, keep a close watch on the announcement to avoid being caught out by any unexpected moves by the RBA.
Ultimately, the AUD has been moving in a fairly predictable fashion over the past few weeks and we expect to see this continue, at least in the near-term. Consequently, watch out for any surges in buying pressure which signal that the bulls have re-entered the market and are ready to push the Aussie dollar higher. Furthermore, watch the fundamentals as they present significant risks moving forward.