The Australian dollar has stabilized on Wednesday, after a 2.2% decline over the past three days. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.62254, up 0.37% but remains close to five-month lows.
Australian job growth expected to slide
Australia’s employment is expected to post a small gain of 7,200 in March after a blowout gain of 116,500 in February. The unemployment rate is expected to bump up to 3.9% after falling from 4.1% to 3.7% in February.
The stunning February jobs report made the Reserve Bank of Australia look good, as it paused rates (rather than cut) just two days earlier at its policy meeting. If the March data shows that the February release was a one-time blip and that the labor market is indeed cooling down, expectations for a rate cut will increase. The RBA has held the cash rate at 4.35% for three straight times and meets next on May 7.
The RBA will be monitoring key data ahead of the meeting and next week’s CPI release for the first quarter will be a key factor in the rate decision. Inflation has been moving lower but still remains above the target range of 2-3%. In February, headline CPI was unchanged at 3.4% while core inflation dropped from 4.1% to 3.9%.
In the US, the Federal Reserve is dealing with a robust US economy and rising inflation. This is complicating the battle with inflation and prompted Fed Chair Powell to deliver a blunt message on Tuesday. Powell said that the Fed would wait longer than previously expected to lower rates as a result of higher than expected inflation reports. This warning led the markets to pare the odds of rate cut expectations, raising the possibility that the Fed might forgo rate cuts until 2025.
AUD/USD Technical
- AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6437 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.6472
- 0.6413 and 0.6378 are the next support levels
