Previously, we wrote that we still believe AUD/USD is building a bear trend but the levels have not worked well, with a bigger bounce than expected…the outlook turns negative on a break back below 7560 targeting 7545/40 and 7515.
The pair dropped 65 pips to our 2 targets.
We also believed that NZDUSD was building a bear trend…the pair broke support at 7040/30 to hit the next target and second support at 6990/80. We bottomed exactly here.
Regarding AUDJPY, we wrote: topped exactly at strong resistance at 8400/8420 with a high for the week as expected. We collapsed from here to our target of 8345/40. Outlook remains negative.
The pair collapsed again to our target of 8325/15 and almost as far as 8295/90.
Today’s Analysis
AUD/USD outlook turns negative on a break back below 7560 targeting 7545/40 and 7515 (hit yesterday) before a retest of 7480/75 lows. Further losses test the best support this week at 7420/10. Longs need stops below 7399. A break lower is another medium term sell signal initially targeting 7370 and 7340/30.
Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 7570/80. Shorts need stops above 7600.
NZD/USD is lower as predicted to second support at 6990/80. We bottomed exactly here but the outlook remains negative so a break lower today targets 6960/55 before a retest of the June low at 6930/20.
Minor resistance at 7055/60 could see a high for the day. Second resistance at 7115/25. A break higher targets 7160/70.
AUD/JPY moved lower as predicted to 8345/40 and 8325/15 today. Further losses are expected, eventually to 8295/90, perhaps as far as 8260/55.
Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 8345/50. If we unexpectedly continue higher, look for resistance at 8375/80. Strongest resistance this week is at 8420/8440. Shorts need stops above 8455. A break higher targets 8500/10 then a retest of the 2021 high at 8570/80.
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