AUD/NZD traded in a consolidative manner today, after it hit resistance near the 1.0360 zone yesterday. Overall, the pair continues to trade below the medium-term downtrend line taken from the peak of August 10th, 2018, while in the short run, it remains below another downside line, drawn from the high of January 21st. So, having that in mind, we would consider the near-term outlook to be negative for now.
If the bears are strong enough to take the reins soon and drive the battle below yesterday’s low of 1.0320, then we may see them aiming for Wednesday’s low, at around 1.0295. If that barrier fails to stop the slide this time, then its break could carry larger bearish implications, perhaps paving the way towards the 1.0237 zone, which is near the “flash crash” low of January 2nd, and also marks the low of September 14th, 2016.
Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI topped slightly above 50 and just crossed below that equilibrium line, while the MACD, although above its trigger line, shows signs of topping slightly below zero. These indicators suggest that the pair may start picking up some downside speed soon, which supports the notion for some further near-term declines.
Alternatively, we would like to see a decisive rebound above 1.0400 before we abandon the bearish case, at least in the short run. Such a move could confirm the break above the short-term downside line drawn from the high of January 21st and may initially open the path towards the high of March 5th, at around 1.0438. If that level gets broken, then we may see upside extensions towards the 1.0465 zone, or the aforementioned medium-term downtrend line drawn from the high of August 10th, 2018.
