On January the 2nd 2019 the yen received a large boost in value through fundamentals causing known forex pairs to crash.
As of writing this article the yearly low sits at around the 70.690 region, do I think we will we see AUD/JPY test these levels again this year?
The short answer is: Yes.
Let me explain my opininon and why this may happen below:
As of writing this article the currently price of AUD/JPY is 75.593 after rejecting the 50 smoothed moving average on the 4 hour candle charts. It also rejected off the 50 smoothed moving average on the daily candle charts at the beginning of last week.
I would also like to add that the daily candle charts have also rejected off of the known Fibonacci and resistance level in the region of 75.200 / 75.300. Due to the higher time frame, this tends to be a bearish sign of which would usually point towards the next Fibonacci level below; which in this case is the yearly lows of 2019 (70.690).
When deciding the entry point and confirmation of analysis; I found that a sucessful break below 74.00 would confirm this scenario, ultimately creating a new lower low and lower high on the daily candle charts.
When will this analysis be invalidated?
A break through the 50 Smoothed Moving Average on the daily candle charts would begin to invalidate this anlalysis, with final confirmations when breaking back above the 100 and 200 Smoothed Moving Average daily candle charts.
At this stage we would likely begin to see a Golden Cross forming throughout our 50,100 and 200 Smoothed Moving Average's of which would further invalidate our bearish bias and instead create a bullish bias hinting towards the phsycholigical resistance level located at 80.00, which was previously reached in April 2019.