Towards the end of last week the Australian dollar enjoyed a healthy surge higher to hit a three month high just above 0.91 before easing back a little back below that level. For the best part of the last month or so, the Australian dollar has done very little other than continue to trade around the 0.90 level, although last week it did creep a little lower down to a three week low. Earlier last month the Australian dollar enjoyed a strong move higher moving through the previous resistance level at 0.88 and reaching a three week high around 0.8980. For a couple of weeks the Australian dollar continued to make runs at the resistance level of 0.88 only to be rejected again and again and forced lower. During this time the Australian dollar seemed content to remain steady and consolidate just below the key 0.88 level, after its strong fall through most of January.
For the last few months the Australian dollar has established and traded within a narrow range roughly between 0.88 and the previous resistance level at 0.90. Back in January the Australian dollar was able to rally higher pushing through the resistance at 0.90 to a one month high near 0.91, however it has since returned to more familiar territory below the resistance levels at 0.90 and 0.88. After showing some resilience in early December moving to a one week high above 0.9150, the AUD/USD spent the next two weeks turning around sharply and falling heavily down to a then three month low close to 0.88.
After all of its steady good work in the middle of November which saw the AUD/USD steadily move higher from support at 0.93 back up to a one week high near 0.9450, the AUD/USD has since returned all of those gains and then some more. Throughout most of October the AUD/USD enjoyed a solid and steady move higher from the support level at 0.93 up to the resistance level at 0.95 and beyond to a high around 0.9760. It has been all down hill since then. Throughout the first half of September the AUD/USD enjoyed a solid run which was punctuated by a strong surge higher sending it to a then three month high just above 0.95. A couple of months ago the AUD/USD had been trying valiantly to stay above the support level at 0.89 as all week it placed downward pressure but was unable to sustain any break lower.
The governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia is confident unemployment will start to fall this year. The unemployment rate in January hit a 10-year high of 6%, and most forecasters, including the RBA, say it will go higher. RBA governor Glenn Stevens on Friday told a parliamentary committee he expects unemployment to peak later this year. "Unemployment will rise further; I would hope not too much further," he said in Sydney. "I'd say the unemployment rate will edge up a little bit further yet, before we see it peak some time this year." In recent months, new data has shown economic growth has been strengthening but employment growth has still been weak. Stevens was asked how long it takes the labour market to respond to changes in economic activity. "Output leads employment. I'd say that would be true in the future and I'd say, probably, one to two quarters," he said. Stevens re-affirmed the RBA's forecasts that economic growth will soon pick up and get above 3%. He also played down the December quarter spike in inflation. The consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, rose 2.7% in the year to December. "We've had a little bit faster flow-through of the effects of the exchange rate," the RBA governor said.
AUD/USD Daily Chart" title="AUD/USD Daily Chart" width="474" height="235"> 
AUD/USD 4 Hourly Chart " title="AUD/USD 4 Hourly Chart " width="474" height="238">
AUD/USD March 10 at 00:50 GMT 0.9051 H: 0.9069 L: 0.9035
AUD/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 0.8900 | --- | --- | 0.9100 | 0.9180 | --- |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Monday, the AUD/USD is just easing back a little around the 0.9050 level after recently surging higher through both the 0.90 and 0.91 levels. The Australian dollar was in a free-fall for a lot of last year falling close to 20 cents. Current range: trading right around 0.9050.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.8900.
• Above: 0.9100 and 0.9180.
OANDA's Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has moved back below 60% as the Australian dollar has moved strongly up through the 0.90 level. The trader sentiment remains in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 23:50 (Sun) JP Bank Lending Data (Feb)
- 23:50 (Sun) JP Current Account (Jan)
- 23:50 (Sun) JP GDP (Final) (Q4)
- 09:30 EU Sentix Indicator (Mar)
- 12:15 CA Housing starts (Feb)
- EU and US hold Trade Talks in Brussels (to 14th)