AUD/USD Intraday: Solid Gains In Asian Trade, Lower In Europe

• AUD/USD gained solidly in Asian trading ahead of tomorrow’s release of the minutes from the recent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting. The RBA cut rates at the meeting and shifted to a more neutral stance; tomorrow’s minutes are likely to reinforce the message of “more cuts are less likely” as they shed light on the decision. However, the “buy the rumor, sell the fact” activity seems to have kicked in even before the facts are available and AUD was the biggest loser vs USD among the G10 currencies during the European morning.

• AUD/USD moved lower during the European morning, failing to form a higher top than the previous high of 12 August. Currently the pair is moving in a trading range between the 0.9220 (R1) and 0.9074 (S3) levels. Bollinger Bands show the weakness of the price action since the rate moved down to test the 20-hour moving average. A break below that would lead us towards the lower band, very close to the 0.9164 (S1) support level. It is worth noting that both RSI and MACD oscillators show weakness for further upward movement considering that both failed to form higher highs since Aug. 12. RSI is at 55, a relatively neutral area, and MACD is above zero but decelerates. The next significant move is expected after the pair manages to escape from the trading range boundaries.

• Support: Support is found at the 0.9164 (S1), followed by the 0.9118 (S2) and 0.9074 (S3) respectively.

• Resistance: The main resistance level identified on the 1-hour chart is at 0.9220 (R1). The next in line are at 0.9253 (R2) and 0.9286 (R3), found from the 4-hour chart.
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