AUD/USD Falls With Other Commodity Currencies

• Commodity currencies all fell this morning despite the fact that commodities themselves were fairly strong. Copper for example was up 1.25% , gasoil up 1.1%, and soybeans up 0.7% and most Asian stock markets closed higher (including Chinese stocks), yet AUD, NZD and CAD all weakened vs USD. In the absence of any fundamental reason, it is probably just a technical reaction to the sharp gains of last week, plus perhaps some speculation about the data coming out this week. US retail sales for July, due out tomorrow, is expected to be up 0.3% mom, a deceleration from +0.4% mom in June, but the so-called “control group” (excluding petrol stations, auto dealers and building materials) is forecast to power ahead at +0.4% mom vs only +0.1% the previous month. That figure might reassure investors about the health of the US economy and cause a general rebound in the dollar.

• AUD/USD moved lower during the European morning, after managing to retest twice the today’s highs at 0.9213. The pair is currently trading near the lower boundary of the uptrend channel. A clear price action near that area will provide us an indication about the next directional movement. If selling pressure overcomes buying pressure and a penetration of the 0.9127 support level occurs, it will increase chances for a further downward move towards the 0.9085 support level. On the other hand, if the bulls manage to keep the pair in the channel, we expect the rate to retest today’s highs. Additionally, the 20-hour moving average remains above the 200-hour moving average, giving a bullish picture over the short term horizon.

• Support: Support levels are found at 0.9127 followed by the 0.9085 and the 0.9043.

• Resistance: The only resistance level identified on the 1-hour chart is today’s highs at 0.9213. The next in line are the 0.9293 and 0.9342 levels, found from the 4-hour chart.
AUD/CAD" width="1729" height="806">
Disclaimer: This information is not considered as investment advice or investment recommendation but instead a marketing communication. This material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. IronFX may act as principal (i.e. the counterparty) when executing clients’ orders. This material is just the personal opinion of the author(s) and client’s investment objective and risks tolerance have not been considered.

IronFX is not responsible for any loss arising from any information herein contained. Past performance does not guarantee or predict any future performance. Redistribution of this material is strictly prohibited. Risk Warning: Forex and CFDs are leveraged products and involves a high level of risk. It is possible to lose all your capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone and you should ensure that you understand the risks involved. Seek independent advice if necessary. IronFx Financial Services Limited is authorised and regulated by CySEC (Licence no. 125/10). IronFX UK Limited is authorised and regulated by FCA (Registration no. 585561). IronFX (Australia) Pty Ltd is authorized and regulated by ASIC (AFSL no. 417482)