AUD/USD 5 wave cycle from 12/23 low is proposed to be over at 0.7608 and pair is now turning lower. On Thursday, we mentioned that a break below 0.7511 would negate another high to complete wave (A) and suggest that 5 wave cycle from 12/23 low ended already at 0.7608.
On Friday, pair failed to make a new high above 0.7608 and even though 0.7511 low is not yet broken, pair is trading heavy at the moment and also the pivot at 0.7511 low in our distribution system has been broken, which adds conviction to the view that pair will continue lower towards 0.7486 – 0.7463 to complete black wave ((w)) as a (w)-(x)-(y) structure. Afterwards, expect a bounce in the pair in wave ((x)) to fail below 0.7608 high for continuation lower within the (B) wave pull back, which can reach as low as 0.7380 – 0.7261 (50 – 76.4 Fibonacci retracement area).
AUD/USD 1 Hour Chart
Elliott Wave Cycle Degrees
