Economic Data
(AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 PRIVATE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE Q/Q: -1.2% V +1.0%E (biggest decline in 10 quarters)
(AU) AUSTRALIA JAN HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 4.2% V 6.2% PRIOR
(AU) AUSTRALIA JAN PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 3.6% V 3.7%E
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB ANZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 39.4 V 22.7 PRIOR (17-month high); ANZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 37.6 V 31.4 PRIOR
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN MONEY SUPPLY M3 Y/Y: 6.4% V 6.0% PRIOR
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN BUILDING PERMITS M/M: -0.4% V -2.0%E
(JP) JAPAN FEB MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.5 V 47.7 PRIOR (8-month high)
(JP) JAPAN JAN PRELIM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.0% V 1.5%E; Y/Y: -5.1% V -4.9%E
(JP) JAPAN JAN VEHICLE PRODUCTION Y/Y: -9.9% V -17.2% PRIOR
(KR) SOUTH KOREA JAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -1.5% V +0.3%E; Y/Y: 7.3% V 5.0%E
(KR) SOUTH KOREA JAN CYCLICAL LEADING INDEX CHANGE Y/Y: -0.2% V +0.4% PRIOR (first decline in 3 months)
(KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR BUSINESS SURVEY MANUFACTURING: 76 V 72 PRIOR; NON-MANUFACTURING: 69 V 70 PRIOR
(SG) SINGAPORE JAN MONEY SUPPLY M1 Y/Y: 11.2% V 9.0% PRIOR; M2 Y/Y: 8.5% V 7.2% PRIOR
(SG) SINGAPORE JAN CREDIT CARD BAD DEBTS (S$): 18.3M V 19.1M PRIOR; CREDIT CARD BILLINGS: 3.39B V 3.69B PRIOR; BANK LOANS & ADVANCES Y/Y: 18.3% V 16.7% PRIOR
(TH) THAILAND JAN MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION INDEX ISIC: 10.1 V 12.4E
(UK) UK FEB GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -26 V -26E
Markets Snapshot (as of 04:00 GMT)
Nikkei225 +2.1%
S&P/ASX +1.4%
Kospi +1.0%
Shanghai Composite +0.6%
Hang Seng +1.2%
Mar S&P500 flat at 1,518
Apr gold flat at $1,598/oz
Apr Crude Oil +0.2% at $93.04/brl
Notes/Observations
NZD up 70pips above $0.8320 following 17-month high in ANZ Business Confidence.
AUD testing below $1.02 on two separate occasions as RBA calls AUD undervalued by 4-15% in late 2012 and Q4 capex disappoints even as forecast for FY12/13 and mining spending is up on y/y basis; Analysts still see Capex data diminishing prospects for more RBA easing.
METI upgrades Japan's assessment for industrial production.
Japan PM Abe formally submits ADB's Kuroda to Diet as BOJ Gov nominee.
Shanghai Composite extending gains in late session; Up nearly 2%.
Speakers/Political/In the Papers
(JP) Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's (METI): Raises industrial production assessment; Output has stopped falling, sees signs of pickup
(JP) Japan BoJ Shirakawa: Cannot purchase foreign bonds for the purpose of intervention, will continue to supply a large amount of funds to the market - addressing parliament
(JP) BOJ Board member Kiuchi: To consider easing policy further; Sees some risk of economy undershooting long-term forecast
(CN) Analysts forecast China Feb new yuan loans to reach RMB750B - China press
(CN) China Electricity Council (CEC): 2013 total power consumption will increase +6.5-8.5% v 5.5% in 2012 - financial press
(AU) S&P: Australia banking outlook is Stable, but risks remain
(NZ) S&P: Significant risk of sharp correction for NZ property - financial press
(EU) Moody's: Euro region sovereign debt markets vulnerable to further shocks to investor confidence
(US) Fed's Fisher: Current pace of asset buys runs the risk of overkill; QE benefitting Wall Street and not main street
Currencies
Asia session was marked by sharp moves in the AUD/USD, at the start of trading in Australia. The RBA released documents on AUD holdings, noting that the value of the AUD was 4-15% overvalued as recently as late 2012, sending AUD below $1.02 before paring losses and recovering to $1.0230. Shortly after, a Q4 release of private capital expenditure showed the biggest Q/Q decline in 10 quarters at -1.2%. AUD/USD initially fell 20 pips toward $1.02 again but quickly bounced off the handle and staged a sharp rally through 1.0270. Analysts indicated mining investment is projected to remain strong on y/y basis, as ABS also provided its first estimate of FY13/14 capex that was not as poor as had been feared.
USD weakness was also seen in NZD/USD and USD/SGD as both reached 0.8320 and 1.2355 respectively. USD weakness lost steam midday and USDSGD bounced off 1.2350 levels and NZD/USD also failed to sustain its gains. Onshore currencies KRW, TWD, MYR, and PHP were little changed on the day, and the USDCNY fixing was slightly lower at 6.2779 v 6.2842 the prior day.
USD/JPY was fairly muted during Asian session, JPY saw some strength after Fin Min Aso made comments that the BoJ should avoid foreign bond buying and cannot be perceived as conducting intervention in FX markets. The effect of the comments on USD/JPY was muted however as the pair remained contained to 92.10-92.60 range despite the strong gains in risky assets.
Fixed Income/Commodities
(JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.51T in 0.1% 2-yr notes, Avg Yield: 0.047% v 0.070% prior; bid to cover: 5.14x v 10.13x prior
(MA) Malaysia sells 2018 Bonds; avg yield 3.260%; bid-to-cover: 1.94x
SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,617 tons from 10,602 tons prior (highest since 10,690 on Jan 23rd)
GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 12.0 tons to 1,258.4 ton (lowest since 1,258 on Aug 15th; 7th consecutive session of decline)
(AU) Australia Port Hedland plans to re-open Thursday, notes no major damage from Cyclone Rusty
Equities
WOW.AU: Reports H1 Net A$1.25B +5.5% y/y, Rev A$30.9B +4.8% y/y; +2.5%
LLC.AU: Sells aged care business for A$270M to Australian Aged Care Partners - Australian press
LEI.AU: Awarded contact in Hong Kong valued at approx A$370M - financial press
RIO: Resumes operations at Port Dampier after tropical cyclone Rusty, Cape Lambert Port will also re-open
HVN.AU: Reports H1 Net A$81.9M v A$128.9M y/y, Rev A$2.88B -5.3% y/y;
Komatsu 6301.JP: May report FY13/14 op profit over ¥300B vs ¥230B forecasted for FY12/13 - Nikkei News
Denso 6902.JP: To build facility in Japan; to invest approx ¥11.5B - financial press
TM: To resume hiring seasonal workers to help boost domestic output due to weakness in JPY and strong demand - Nikkei News
RGR: Reports Q4 $1.00 v $0.73e, R$141.8M v $124Me; +2.8% afterhours
MYL: Reports Q4 $0.65 v $0.64e, R$1.72B v $1.73Be; To Acquire Agila for $1.6B; to Create Leading Global Injectables Platform; +2.4% afterhours
LTD: Reports Q4 $1.76 v $1.73e, R$3.86B v $3.79Be; -0.3% afterhours
JCP: Reports Q4 -$1.95 v -$0.23e, R$3.88B v $4.16Be; -13.4% afterhours
GRPN: Reports Q4 -$0.05 v $0.03e, R$638M v $639Me; -26.0% afterhours
VALE: Reports Q4 Net $1.9B v $4.9B y/y, R$12.0B v $14.8B y/y